West Side

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 80. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 66. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 81. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 80. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows around 61. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north after midnight.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 81. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 64. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 77 to 82. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 61. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 76. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate northeast trades will shift out of the east later today through Monday, then continue through the first half of the week. Despite the drying trend from west to east, some residual moisture lingering over the eastern end of the state from a recent front will support mostly cloudy skies, along with a few showers persisting this morning over windward areas. Otherwise, mostly dry and stable conditions are anticipated through the first half of the week, with the best rainfall chances favoring windward and mauka areas overnight. A return of breezy easterly trades and increasing rainfall chances is possible through the second half of the week as an upper disturbance moves into the area.

Discussion

Satellite imagery shows an area of low-level moisture and clouds lingering across the eastern end of the state from a frontal boundary that recently passed through. The early morning upper air sounding reflected this and showed a moist profile up to the trade wind inversion near 7 kft. Showery conditions have resulted this morning over windward and mauka locations of the Big Island, where accumulations have reached around a quarter of an inch over the past 6-12 Hrs. Expect this trend to continue through a good portion of the day before drier air spreads into the area and the clouds begin to scatter. Elsewhere, outside of a few morning windward showers, expect mostly dry and stable conditions today with moderate northeast trades.
Guidance remains in good agreement, indicating dry and stable conditions continuing through the first half of the week as upper heights rise over the region and the aforementioned moisture near the Big Island dissipates. This will create a more suppressed environment with precipitable water values remaining around an inch or less. Trades will shift out of the east beginning later tonight and maintain moderate levels. The best chances for a few showers will be over typical windward and mauka locations overnight through the early mornings. Any leeward showers are more likely to occur in the afternoons, where localized sea breezes form.
A gradual strengthening and destabilization of the trade wind flow is possible Wednesday into Friday. There is higher confidence that trades will likely increase as a deeper surface high sets up far north of the state, potentially resulting in breezy conditions by Friday. An upper-level trough will slowly pass over the region during this time, bringing 500 mb temperatures as low as -16C on Wednesday night and Thursday. While there could be some increase in shower coverage in response to the added instability, a mid-level ridge may be able to maintain stability and lower the chances of heavy rainfall.

Aviation

Light to moderate trade winds will rebuild over the state today. Bands of clouds and light showers off the Pacific will favor north and northeast facing slopes and coast. Late night soundings reveal plenty of low-level moisture persisting over the far eastern end of the state, and strong stability statewide. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration for northeast facing slopes of the Big Island is thus expected to remain necessary through midday and possibly beyond. VFR cloudiness will prevail elsewhere across the state.

Marine

Weak high pressure will drift north of the state the next few days. This will result in moderate to locally fresh east trade winds through the middle of the week. A new high settling in from the north late in the week will tighten the regional pressure gradient enough to produce fresh to locally strong trades.
The current near 5 foot, medium period northwest (300-320 degree) swell will continue to slowly fall through Tuesday. The far northwest buoys are sensing a reinforcing moderate size, longer period northwest (320-330 degree) swell this morning. This swell should be enough to push today's already slightly elevated surf up a notch to near High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels along many better exposed north and west-facing shores through Monday afternoon. The arrival of a significant moderate size, long period northwest (310-330 degree) swell late Tuesday and Wednesday will likely produce solid mid week advisory level surf with a late week decline to below HSA heights Thursday. A slight boost to south surf is expected from today through Tuesday as a small, long period south (200 degree) swell moves around the islands through Tuesday. East shore surf will remain small through early next week with a slight pick up in chop anticipated later in the week with strengthened trades.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov