Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 77. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 70 to 77. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 78. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 64. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 78. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 70 to 76 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 70 to 76 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny early in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 74 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 51 to 65. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows 42 to 51. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 51 to 65. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 70 to 76 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 70 to 76 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Windy. Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 68 to 75. East winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny early in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 67 to 77. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 60 to 70. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 67 to 77. East winds 20 to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy northeast trade winds will become more easterly this weekend through early next week. Drier air will fill in over the weekend, providing limited clouds and showers windward and mauka.

Discussion

Satellite loop shows a broad anticyclonic circulation across the central North Pacific this morning, marking a subtropical high. The main Hawaiian Islands lie within a belt of northeasterly trades along the southern flank of this circulation. Ragged bands of patchy broken low clouds keep skies covered across windward sections of Kauai and the Big Island, but the remaining islands lie beneath scattered low clouds to clear skies. Overnight soundings show a rather dry airmass, with PW ranging from 0.9 to 1.1 inches. Radar shows isolated to scattered light showers beneath cloud cover across windward portions of Kauai and the Big Island, with more showers noted across waters upwind from Oahu and Molokai, but very little activity elsewhere.
Models show stronger winds shifting southward over the state today as a band of moistures rides ahead. This will translate to a slight increase in clouds and showers for Kauai and Oahu later this morning and for the rest of the state through the course of today. Breezy northeast trade winds will veer more easterly this weekend as the high north of the state gradually strengthens and tracks eastward. Given the dryness of our airmass, any clouds and showers that form will be limited to windward and mauka areas. Models show increased moisture early next week as an area of high PW moves in from the south, raising values to around 1.5 inches across the state by Tuesday. Upper troughing over the state could increase shower coverage over windward areas, while breezy trade winds persist.

Aviation

Breezy northeast trade winds will persist, with clouds and showers favoring windward areas. The best windward shower coverage is initially expected over the Big Island and the western end of the state where a band of low-level moisture has settled southward into the area. Similar conditions are anticipated over Maui County later today through tonight as this band continues southward.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and S thru W of mountains.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for mountain obscuration due to MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in SHRA for windward Big Island, Kauai, and Oahu.

Marine

Surface high pressure north of the state will gradually strengthen and drift east through the weekend. This will result in nearshore winds increasing to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) magnitudes across more area waters this weekend. Trades have already reached SCA levels across the typically windier waters around Maui County and south of Big Island. A SCA remains in effect for these windier waters. There is a high likelihood of adding more coastal zones to the advisory this evening or Saturday morning in response to strong trades spreading westward over more nearshore waters.
The ongoing near three foot, medium period northwest (310 degree) swell will flatten out today. A reinforcing small to moderate size, long period northwest (310 degree) swell is forecast to arrive through the day Saturday. Another slightly larger northwest swell will be on this weekend swell's heels and pass through Sunday night through Monday. This early week swell will likely result in High Surf Advisory surf heights along the better-exposed smaller island north and west-facing shores. Short period easterly wind wave swell will pick up going into the weekend as trade winds pick back up. South-facing shore surf will remain at very low background levels the next several days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov