Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Highs around 86. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 64. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86. Light winds becoming west up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Highs 82 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 67. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 61 to 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows 60 to 69. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trades will prevail over the eastern islands through the first half of the work week, while lighter trades over the western islands allow for some leeward land and sea breezes. Relatively dry weather will persist through Tuesday, with a few showers affecting windward areas overnight into the early morning hours and developing over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. The trades will rebound Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing a transition over to more typical trade wind weather. The trades will become breezy Thursday through next weekend, and the trade wind showers may increase as well due to a disturbance aloft moving over the islands.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weakening front is located around 450 miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a 1031 mb high is centered around 1600 miles northeast of Honolulu. Moderate trade winds prevail in unsheltered areas over the eastern end of the state, while lighter trades persist over the western islands. Infrared satellite imagery shows a combination of high and low clouds resulting in mostly cloudy conditions across the state. Radar imagery shows a few light showers moving into windward areas, with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Main short term focus continues to revolve around trade wind trends and rain chances during the next few days.
A front northwest of the islands will weaken into a trough and edge slowly eastward during the next couple days. Little change is expected in the overall wind forecast, with moderate trades holding on over the eastern end of the state, while lighter trades prevail over the western islands, allowing some leeward sea and land breezes to develop. We should see the trades start to rebound beginning Tuesday night as the trough west of the state begins to shift slowly westward. Moderate to locally breezy trades should overspread the island chain by late Wednesday, with the trades becoming breezy Thursday through the weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, relatively dry conditions should generally prevail across the island chain through Tuesday. Brief passing showers will be possible in windward areas overnight into the early morning hours, with a few showers developing over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. A few showers could be a bit more robust over Kauai and potentially Oahu this afternoon, as some shortwave energy grazes by just to the north. We should see a transition over to more typical trade wind weather Tuesday night and Wednesday, with wetter trade wind conditions potentially developing Friday through the weekend as upper troughing sets up over the state.

Aviation

Light to moderate ESE winds will continue through Tuesday and VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail. However, low clouds and light showers are persisting across windward portions of Kauai, Maui and the Big Island early this morning, bringing periodic MVFR conditions to these areas. As such, AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration is in effect.
High clouds will continue to stream across the Hawaiian Islands today as an upper level jet streak moves in from the west. Tempo moderate turbulence around FL300 to FL380 may accompany this feature…and AIRMET Tango may be needed through the day.
Otherwise, with the lighter ESE flow, afternoon sea breeze activity is expected across wind- sheltered areas, with some inland/leeward cloud buildups and a few light showers possible. However, the high clouds may inhibit heating over land, and therefore limit sea breeze activity.

Marine

High pressure far northeast of the state will continue to slide east while a weak dying front to the northwest edges slowly eastward. Winds will ease through Tuesday and the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled for all zones this morning. By mid- week, high pressure will rebuild to the northeast transitioning back to typically fresh to locally strong trade winds. The SCA will likely go back up for the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island.
North facing shores will remain small through the week with tiny to small medium period background energy. Surf along east facing shores will continue to decline as winds begin to taper off through Tuesday. A small long period south- southwest pulse will fill in through the day, peak Tuesday and ease Wednesday for south facing shores. Surf heights along the south facing shores should remain near or slightly below seasonal norms.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov