Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 65. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 84 to 89. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 64. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 86 to 91. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 60 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 67 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Light winds.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 60 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 67 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 61 to 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 83. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 78 to 88. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 58 to 69. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A surface ridge will settle southward during the next few days, with moderate trades today becoming light Thursday and Friday with land and sea breezes common across much of the state. The ridge will lift northward this weekend allowing the trades to gradually strengthen, with locally breezy conditions returning for the first half of next week. Very dry conditions will greatly limit shower activity through the weekend, with a slight increase in windward showers expected early next week as the trades strengthen to locally breezy levels.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1024 mb high is centered around 1150 miles northeast of Honolulu, and is moderate trade winds across the island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across the state, with cloud coverage the greatest over windward and mauka areas. Radar imagery shows very little rainfall across the state, with nothing more than isolated very light showers affecting windward slopes at coasts from time to time. Main short term focus continues to revolve around trade wind trends during the next several days.
High pressure northeast of the state will gradually weaken and shift eastward during the next few days, with the associated ridge shifting southward to a location just north of Kauai Thursday and Friday. Moderate trades today, will become light Thursday and Friday with land and sea breezes common across much of the state. The ridge will begin to lift northward over the weekend allowing the trades to gradually strengthen, with moderate to locally breezy conditions returning for the first half of next week.
As for the remaining weather details, very stable and dry conditions remain over the island chain, evident in the sharp trade wind inversions, at or below 5 kft at both Hilo and Lihue during the 12z soundings. Little change in the trade wind inversion is expected through the weekend, which will greatly limit shower activity across the entire state. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift early next week, which should bring a slight increase in trade wind showers, while still remaining drier than normal for this time of year.

Aviation

Trade winds will gradually weaken over the next twenty-four to thirty-six hours as the pressure gradient over the Islands relaxes. Bands of clouds and light showers will favor east and northeast facing slopes and coasts. Brief MVFR conditions are to be expected in showers, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail statewide.
Lingering mid-level atmospheric instability will encourage convective showers over interior and upslope portions of the Big Island today in the afternoon and early evening. Stability is expected to increase later in the week as mid level ridging builds over the state.
AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence lee of island terrain remains in effect. This AIRMET will likely be cancelled toward morning as low-level winds decrease.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for windward sections of Maui, Molokai, and Oahu. Conditions are expected to improve by late morning.

Marine

The ridge of high pressure is slowly sinking southward, and the result is a downward trend to the moderate trade winds. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled for all Hawaiian waters and looks to remain that way through the end of the week. Trade winds are expected to continue to ease and diminish significantly Thursday and Friday. Increasing moderate trades are expected during the weekend as the ridge lifts northward.
The active south Pacific will continue to generate southerly swells that will pass through the islands through the middle of the month. The current south-southwest swell has started to decline, and a continued gradual decline is expected through Thursday. Another reinforcing south-southwest swell is expected to arrive late Thursday and Friday, that is currently expected to bring south facing shore surf around the seasonal average. A larger swell is expected to move through the islands this coming weekend, which will likely be near or at HSA levels of 10 feet. A potentially even larger swell is looking increasingly likely late next week that would bring surf well above advisory levels.
The current small northwest swell is on the decline as shorter period energy is now moving through the islands. Another small pulse from the northwest is expected to build through the day into Thursday keeping surf elevated. Wind waves for east facing shores will decline today and will diminish significantly after today coinciding with the light winds through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov