Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 89. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 74. North winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 89. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 51 to 70. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 51 to 70. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of Hawaii into next week, producing moderate trade winds through the weekend, and then strengthening into the moderate to breezy range from Monday onward. Passing showers are expected to mainly affect windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. An upper level low will drift from east to west over the islands this weekend, likely increasing shower activity as it passes through the state. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the interior Big Island on Friday and Saturday afternoons, and near Kauai this weekend.

Discussion

A band of unstable low clouds will continue to enhance clouds and showers over the islands through the morning and afternoon hours. The water vapor channel satellite imagery continues to show an upper level low roughly 550 miles northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This low will slowly drift westward across the island chain through the weekend, enhancing trade wind showers as it passes through the state.
Global weather models continue to show a slight weakening of the ridge induced trade winds through the weekend, as the upper low passes over the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Big Island interior on Friday and Saturday afternoons, and then near Kauai from Saturday night to Sunday.
The ridge north of the island chain will then strengthen after the upper low weakens and drifts away from the islands on Monday, increasing trade winds into the moderate to breezy range from Monday onward. The strengthening ridge will also keep the trade wind thermal inversion at more stable and at lower heights from 5,000 to 6,500 fee next week, limiting shower activity for most of the days.

Aviation

Moderate trades are expected to continue across the island chain through the weekend. Showers and low clouds embedded in the trades will bring brief periods of MVFR conditions over windward and mauka locations. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration across the windward portions of the island chain early this morning as a band of low clouds and showers moves in from the east. In addition, an upper-level low is forecasted to approach the islands this weekend and is expected to increase shower coverage. As such, AIRMET Sierra may be needed periodically throughout the weekend.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds through the weekend. The trades are expected to strengthen back to fresh and strong levels early next week, and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island.
A series of south swells will keep south shore surf near the summertime average through Saturday. Surf will lower below normal levels much of next week.
Typical mostly flat summertime conditions will continue along prevail north facing shores through late next week.
East shore surf will remain well below normal through the weekend, then trend up and closer to seasonal levels next week as the trades strengthen over and upstream of the islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov