Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. North winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 59 to 73. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will hold through the week. A drier trade wind pattern will filter today into weekend, with light to moderate showers focused over windward slopes.

Discussion

Latest satellite and radar imagery shows numerous light to moderate showers mainly over windward and mauka regions compared to more moderate to locally heavy showers earlier this evening. The past 12 hour rainfall totals rain range from .10 to .30 of an inch for the coastal windward locations on Kauai .01 to .30 of an inch for windward areas of the other islands. Radar and satellite imagery shows an area of less clouds and showers that should move over the state later this morning and afternoon in tandem with the diurnal minimum precipitation trend. However, expect humid conditions to linger as dew points remain elevated in the low to mid 70s.
The surface high pressure north of the state that is driving the moderate to locally fresh trade winds. The high is expected to ease slightly during the second half of the week allowing for a brief decline in the trades around Thursday and Friday. While a ridge aloft will bring stability, a mid- level trough will linger nearby into Wednesday, which will keep shower chances a bit higher than normal. Dew points are expected to fall into the upper 60s over most leeward areas late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing some relief from the humidity. Drier conditions are due Thursday and Friday and likely persist into Saturday.
While a ridge aloft will maintain stability over the islands through much of the week, an upper-level trough will persist to the west. The main effect of this feature will be periods of high clouds overhead. Models suggest that a low aloft may develop Sunday and Monday and north of Kauai. At this time, it does not look like it will affect local weather significantly.

Aviation

High pressure far north and northeast of Hawaii will maintain breezy trade winds through forecast period. Stable conditions will prevail, with only limited areas of low ceilings and temporary MVFR conditions over windward areas. Aside from afternoon clouds over Kona slopes of the Big Island, VFR conditions will prevail.
With the increased trade winds, AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain is in effect. This AIRMET will likely continue through the day.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through Wednesday. The trades may ease off ever so slightly Thursday and Friday as the high to the north weakens, before rebounding back to moderate and locally strong levels this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for the typically windy waters around the Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM Thursday.
East shore surf will hold near seasonal levels through Wednesday, then slowly lower Thursday through early next week. A mix of southeast, south and southwest swells will keep some small surf rolling into south facing shores through the weekend. A slight bump in south shore surf is possible early next week as a slightly larger southwest swell moves into the islands. North shore surf will remain very small through the weekend. A nice bump in north shore surf is possible early next week as a long period northwest swell arrives.
The combination of high astronomical tides and water levels running around 0.6 to 0.8 feet higher than predicted will produce localized coastal inundation around the time of high tide this afternoon. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect highlighting potential impacts.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov