Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows 66 to 75. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 88. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with showers likely in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 65 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Showers likely early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible early in the evening. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with showers likely in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Showers likely early in the evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible early in the evening. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday: Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with showers likely in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 91. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Showers likely early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible early in the evening. Lows 59 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Scattered showers late in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to locally moderate trade winds are expected through Sunday, bringing a few showers to windward areas. Afternoon sea breezes will bring clouds and showers to leeward and interior areas. A low aloft will destabilize the island atmosphere, bringing the potential for some locally heavy showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly over the Big Island slopes and the coastal waters through Sunday. Expect stronger trade winds to return next week along with more stable conditions.

Discussion

A weak high north of the state will generate gentle to moderate trade winds for the next couple of days. Satellite and radar imagery shows some enhanced low level cumulus clouds riding in with the moderate trade winds early this morning. Rain rates typically range from 0.5- 1 inch per hour. Rainfall totals were highest for some of the wetter regions of the windward locations with totals up to .40 of inch. Some leeward locations of the smaller islands also received some rain, generally less than .10 of inch. In addition some thin high clouds are moving over the state from the west.
An upper level roughly 300 nm north of Kauai will shift south today and settle over the central island chain by Sunday. As a result, the atmosphere will become more unstable as the day progresses, increasing inversion heights. The increased inversion heights will allow for taller clouds and locally heavier showers. Afternoon sea breezes are expected along select leeward areas due to light trade wind flow. By Saturday night upper level temperatures are expected to cool to around -10C over the western half of the state bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms near and around the islands along with localized heavy showers embedded in the tradewind flow. Leeward locations will see a general decline in clouds and showers but due to the elevated inversion levels may still see a stray showers as clouds and showers move from east to west of the smaller islands.
Sunday, will likely see similar weather setup as Saturday with the exception of a slightly larger area where thunderstorms could develop including the upslope locations around Big Island during the afternoon. It is difficult to say where some of the heavier showers will be the next couple of days, but the more likely areas will be over leeward areas during the afternoon and evening periods and over windward areas during the overnight and morning hours. Overall though, due to the limited moisture (precipitable water values around 1.2 to 1.5 inches) shower activity is not expected to be widespread. Many people may see fair weather this weekend, however don't be surprised if you see some thunderstorms offshore or even an isolated heavy shower overhead.
Latest model trends show trade winds may begin to gradually increase as early as Sunday into early next week as a new high pressure to the distant northwest builds eastward. Stability will also increase as the low aloft weakens and moves away to the northeast. Some instability may linger through Monday, but generally more stable, trade wind conditions should return by Tuesday and persist through much of next week with clouds and showers mainly focused along windward and mauka areas.

Aviation

Light to moderate trade winds will continue this weekend with afternoon sea breezes developing over terrain sheltered leeward areas. An upper level low moving over the islands today will increase low cloud and shower trends through at least Sunday. MVFR with brief IFR conditions this weekend will favor windward and mountain areas, including converging sea breeze boundaries along the leeward slopes.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A high northeast of the state will continue to weaken today and drive gentle to moderate trade winds across local waters. An upper low will drop down over the islands later today, creating enough instability to generate isolated thunderstorms for areas mainly west of Oahu tonight into Sunday. Expect trade winds to gradually strengthen Sunday into the first half of next week as high pressure builds north of the state. Winds could potentially reach Small Craft Advisory levels across the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island by next week and last through at least mid-week.
A pair of overlapping small, short period north swells should maintain small surf across north facing shores through this weekend. A short lived small, short to medium period northeast swell is expected tonight through Sunday. This will also give east facing shores a slight bump on Sunday. There is the potential for a moderate long period north-northwest swell as early as Sunday which would peak Monday, below advisory levels for north facing shores. This swell could linger through the middle of next week as it slowly fades.
A moderate, long period south swell is expected to slowly fill in today, peak Sunday and hold into Monday before gradually declining through the middle of next week. This swell may boost surf along south facing shores to near or slightly below advisory levels during its peak.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov