Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. North winds up to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 67 to 75. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 44 to 55. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 70 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

As an upper level low near the state moves off to the northeast and the surface ridge begins to reestablish itself over the region, a more stable moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern can be expected over the next couple of days with low clouds and brief showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Then trades will weaken briefly early this weekend as a cold front approaches from the north and then dissipates.

Discussion

The upper level low that has been over the state the past few days will quickly lift northeast of the state and bring slightly more stable trade wind conditions to the island chain through the rest of the week. However, mid level ridging will have a hard time building overhead as a broad region of weak troughing persists until this weekend as the short wave trough to the north gets absorbed into the longwave trough and moves eastward, and a weak mid level low/trough to the south moves off to the west.
The surface ridge will reestablish itself over the region and maintain generally moderate to locally breezy trades through Thursday. In this pattern, low clouds and brief showers will favor windward and mauka areas as batches of low level moisture are brought in on the trades, particularly during the late night/early morning periods. Then trades will weaken in response to a frontal system that will approach and dissipate to the north of the state Friday into Saturday, possibly allowing for land and sea breeze development across the areas that are typically more sheltered from the trades. This would allow for some leeward interior cloud build up during the afternoon hours and clearing overnight. Trades will then strengthen back to moderate levels by early next week as the aforementioned front dissipates and the surface pressure gradient restrengthens over the area.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades expected over the next couple of days. SHRA and low cigs will will bring brief periods of MVFR conds to windward and mauka areas. VFR should prevail elsewhere.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A high pressure ridge far north of the state will continue to be weakened by cold frontal systems prowling across the Central Pacific basin this week. Therefore gentle to fresh trade winds will continue into next weekend, slightly below Small Craft Advisory levels in the windier eastern waters and channels.
A small long-period north-northwest swell moving through Hawaiian waters will slowly decline over the next few days, keeping surf elevated along north facing shores into Wednesday.
A medium to long period south swell, rolling in roughly 1 foot above model guidance at the PacIOOS Lanai buoy this morning. This swell will also slowly decline trough the first half of this week, elevating surf heights along south facing shores into Wednesday. The latest swell guidance shows yet another smaller long period south swell filling in on Thursday, holding through Friday, and then gradually declining over the weekend.
Surf along west facing shores will be influenced by a mix of both the north and south swells through Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will be rough and choppy in the gentle to fresh trade wind pattern.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov