Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 80 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 76. North winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. North winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. North winds around 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 45 to 55. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 74 to 81. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 90. East winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Locally breezy trade winds will persist through tonight, bringing just a few showers, mainly to windward areas. Winds will diminish Monday, and remain light for the remainder of the week. The light winds will combine with a ridge aloft to support a mostly dry weather pattern. A wetter regime may develop by next weekend.

Discussion

Locally breezy ENE trade winds will persist through tonight, bringing just a few showers, mainly to windward areas. Winds will diminish Monday, and will remain light for the remainder of the week. The light winds will combine with a ridge aloft to support a mostly dry weather pattern. Long range guidance suggest a trend toward a wetter pattern may develop by next weekend.
A strengthening and locally breezy trade wind flow is being supported by a ridge far N of the islands, with broad low pressure about 1200 miles NW of Kauai. A strong and low subsidence inversion is the result of a strong mid-level ridge centered directly overhead. End result is a mostly dry trade wind regime, with radar and satellite showing randomly scattered stable and showery low clouds carrying little in the way of rainfall. Little change is expected through tonight.
The low far NW of the area will persist in one form or another for most of the next week as another low develops far NE of the islands. This will lead to a significant reduction in the low-level pressure gradient, with light E to SE winds expected through the week. The ridge aloft will remain overhead, and a mostly dry regime is likely. Best chance for a shower may be over leeward areas in the afternoons as sea breeze convergence drives cloud formation, with a slight chance of windward showers at night.
Although confidence is quite low due to significant spread in the guidance, a slow-moving low aloft may develop near the islands next weekend, potentially leading to a wetter regime.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades are expected through the rest of today. Winds should diminish Monday and continue to be light for the rest of the week. SHRA and low cigs should favor windward and mauka locations. Brief MVFR conds are possible in SHRA, but VFR should prevail.
No AIRMETs currently in effect.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds will continue through the day as the upper level high remains north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typical windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through 6 pm today. Winds will gradually decrease tonight through the beginning of the week due to two lows forecast to form far northwest and northeast of the waters. The surface ridge will weaken allowing the light to moderate east to southeasterly trades to remain steady through Friday.
A small, short-period north to northwest swell will gradually diminish through the middle of the week, shifting to a more northeasterly direction by Tuesday. Tiny background northwest energy is expected through the week before a small to moderate medium period northeast swell is forecasted by the end of the week. South facing shores will see background south swells that will keep surf from going flat. A small, long-period reinforcement is expected to arrive Monday night and decline through the week followed by another on Friday.
A Coastal Flood Statement (CFWHFO) for all coastal zones is highlighting the fact that higher than forecast water levels are combining with full moon high tides, bringing the potential for minor coastal flooding, mainly during the early morning hours through Monday morning.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov