Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows 63 to 69. East winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 86. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows 63 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 88. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. South winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. Light winds becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows around 64. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows 44 to 53. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Light winds.

East Maui

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. South winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 61. North winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 74 to 81. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 71 to 89. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 55 to 69. East winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 72 to 90. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds and mostly dry weather will prevail for the next couple of days. Strengthening trade winds from Friday into the weekend will bring an increase in showers, some potentially heavy, especially over windward areas.

Discussion

Light winds and mostly dry weather are on tap the next several days. Trade winds will strengthen from Friday into next week, and may bring an increase in showers, especially to windward areas.
Latest satellite imagery shows that there's been a slight diurnal increase in low cloud cover over waters E of the islands, with areas of scattered low clouds punctuating otherwise nearly clear skies. A few small showers are noted over waters E of Maui and the Big Island, moving generally W near 10 mph. An area of showery low clouds that loitered near Kona airport through the night appears to be dissipating. Land-based observations show light winds mostly blowing downslope and offshore, except at exposed windward locations, where light E trade winds are coming it at speeds less than 10 mph. The trade-wind-supporting ridge to the N, and the local pressure gradient, remains weakened by a slow-moving complex low about 1300 miles NW of Kauai. The subtropical jest S of this feature is sending wispy high clouds over the area from the W, while morning soundings indicated a relatively dry air mass, with PWAT near 1.1″.
The slow-moving low to the NW will keep winds light, while a quickly developing low about 1300 miles NE of the islands will also contribute to keep the local pressure gradient loose into Friday. The resultant land and sea breeze weather regime means mostly clear (aside from some high clouds) and cool mornings, with a slight chance of a windward shower. Afternoon clouds over leeward areas will also bring a chance of a shower, especially on the Big Island. A nearby ridge aloft will ensure little to no rainfall accumulation. As mentioned, there will be periods when increased high clouds move over the islands from the W, especially this afternoon and tonight.
Surface high pressure building N of the islands from Friday into early next week will lead to strengthening trade winds that become breezy by Sunday. The ridge aloft will weaken over the weekend as a low aloft moves over the area from the N, but model guidance remains inconsistent as to the timing and location of this low. A slow- moving front will approach the islands from the NE this weekend, and some guidance indicates that this source of increased low- and mid- level moisture will eventually move over the islands with the increasing trade wind flow. The forecast has been indicating the potential for heavy showers (and even snow on the Big Island Summits) this weekend. While this remains in the official forecast for the sake of consistency, it is worth noting that it is not well supported by EPS guidance. Regardless, rainfall would favor windward areas with the trade winds prevailing.

Aviation

A cold front far north of the state will slowly drift south and keep light winds in the forecast through at least Wednesday. Lighter large scale winds will produce more variable wind directions with afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes over all islands. A weak ridge aloft will also produce stable conditions across the state with limited clouds and only a few showers possible.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

A surface ridge to the north will remain weak for the next several days as broad low pressure meanders well northwest of the state. Expect land and sea breeze conditions near the coasts, with diurnally driven accelerations potentially leading to fresh breezes during the afternoons. A return of fresh to strong easterly trades is possible over the weekend as the ridge strengthens to the north.
Surf along north and east-facing shores will trend up Wednesday through the second half of the week, as a short- to medium- period north-northeast swell arrives from a storm-force low forecast to develop around 1,000 nautical miles to the northeast today through midweek. This will be a long-lived event, as the system slowly evolves and drifts northeastward late in the week. Guidance indicates a reinforcement from this system Friday into Saturday, which may coincide with the peak surf. Heights will near advisory levels for east-facing shores (10 ft faces) from Thursday through Saturday, while north-facing exposures are expected to remain below advisory levels (15 ft faces). For the long-range, guidance shows a gale- to storm-force low tracking eastward from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska late Wednesday through Friday. If this materializes, a long-period northerly swell could arrive late Sunday into early next week from this feature.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small, with predominantly a mix of short- to medium-period southeast and long- period south to south-southwest swells. A slightly larger south swell is expected this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov