West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 76. North winds up to 15 mph.

Independence Day: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the north 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 74 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 68. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Independence Day: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 72 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Dry conditions will prevail within better established trade winds. Breezy winds will strengthen to locally windy through the holiday weekend. Thicker clouds and higher shower frequency remain focused over primarily windward exposures and upslope mauka during the overnight hours.

Discussion

A near 1030 mb high will settle a little over a thousand miles north northeast of the island chain the next several days. This will tighten the downstream pressure enough across the state to produce and maintain breezy to locally strong trade winds through the 4th of July holiday weekend. After this early morning pocket of moisture passes by the eastern third of the state, there will be many days where the suppressing mid level ridge takes over, rooting itself over and north of the islands. This will result in a significantly dry mid to upper level regional atmosphere. A more shallow nocturnal boundary layer will only be sufficiently moist enough to produce showers due to upslope forcing brought about by enhanced trades. Trades should generally become strong enough to overcome any mentionable local scale breeze behavior. Sunnier skies as a result of stable mid to upper ridging producing a drier (overall) column will still occur, especially over better wind protected areas (such as leeward Big Island), building afternoon clouds and introducing more frequent afternoon showers.
The combination of drier conditions within breezy to locally strong trade flow will elevate fire weather concerns, particularly each subsequent mostly sunny day without any substantial rainfall. Many windward areas are abnormally dry with leeward regions falling under more moderate drought conditions. Confidence remains low but, if the state does experience a near term period of low to nil rain, the main topic of concern the next few days will be centered around greater wildfire potential.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds expected through the next several days. Low cigs and SHRA should mainly impact windward and mauka slopes. We could see some iso showers spill over into leeward areas. MVFR conds possible in SHRA otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Tango is not in effect but may be need for mod turb due to the trades later today.

Marine

High pressure far north of the state will strengthen Friday into the weekend with fresh to locally strong trade winds expected. Winds are expected to further strengthen early next week with widespread strong trade winds possible. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typical windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island starting at 6 AM today and continuing through at least 6 PM Friday.
The current south swell will slowly decline Friday into the weekend. Surf heights should still hold near the summer time averages before dropping Friday into the weekend. Tiny, long- period south swell energy will hold into next week, with below average surf expected.
Along east facing shores, an increase of rough and choppy surf is expected this weekend into next week as the trade winds strengthen. No significant swells are expected through next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov