West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 82 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 71 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 91. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 84 to 91. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 84 to 92. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 69 at the visitor center to around 72 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 53 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 69 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 76 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 63 to 77. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 77 to 91. East winds 15 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure will rebuild across the region today through early Sunday, bringing moderate to locally breezy trades across the islands. By Sunday, another low-level trough, remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Ivo) propagates westward into the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands. This will result in an increase of cloud coverage and shower activity, predominately for windward and mauka areas, persisting through Monday. Thereafter, expect stable and drier conditions to return through the remainder of the week.

Discussion

Latest satellite imagery continues to depict a low-level trough just north of the islands, responsible for the current hybrid sea breeze/light trades pattern. Deterministic model guidance continues to showcase the trough meandering westward, distributing increased clouds and shower activity across much of the state, predominately along windward and mauka areas. In fact, local radar supports pockets of isolated showers moving east to west across the islands early this morning, though with minimal impacts.
Moderate to locally breezy trades return to the islands as a surface ridge builds just to the north. Latest satellite guidance depicts drier air will begin to stream from the east as a broad upper- level ridge propagate back over the state. Temperature inversions across the state will lower as a result, increasing cloud coverage and shower activity, predominately over the windward and mauka areas through much of the weekend.
Toward the latter end of the weekend, another trough from the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Ivo will make its way over the islands. Humidity levels steadily increase across the state as the trough moves closes to the vicinity of the islands, beginning Sunday afternoon and lasting through midday Monday. Inversion heights will lift to around 8,000 to 9.000 feet enhancing clouds and showers in a moderate trade wind weather pattern. However, its important to note that confidence on the track of this trough remains low at the moment, as remnant tropical systems tend to be smaller in size and can oscillate off the current track as time passes. Should the system track further north than the current forecast, fewer clouds and showers will reach the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore, further updates will become necessary to increase confidence.
As the trough exits the region to the west, high pressure quickly rebuilds again commencing Tuesday. During this time, expect more stable and drier conditions with moderate to locally breezy trades and a more typical summer-like trade wind weather pattern through the remainder of the forecast period.

Aviation

Light trades continue through this morning, transitioning to moderate to locally breezy trades as a weak low-level disturbance meanders westward. Expect clouds and shower activity across much of the state, predominately along windward and mauka areas, where brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.
No AIRMETs in effect at this time.

Marine

No significant changes to the forecast or forecast philosophy this morning. The overnight ASCAT passes showed the model forecast winds a little stronger, so knocked the forecast winds down a couple knots over the windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island for today. Winds will be on the uptick, and Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds could trickle into these coastal waters by the end of the day.
A surface trough north of the islands will continue to trek to the west over the next couple of days. In its wake, surface ridging will allow trade winds to gradually strengthen through the weekend, leading to the SCA conditions mentioned above.
Surf along south facing shores will see a slight bump early this morning and likely another small bump Saturday as a series of small long period southerly swell arrive. Surf is expected to hold through early next week.
A small, medium period northeast swell will keep surf along east facing shores elevated through the weekend. As this swell declines, the short period energy will fill in as trade winds increase into the weekend. North facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period except for areas that may be exposed to the small northeast swell.

Fire weather

Weather conditions should remain below critical fire weather thresholds into early next week. A low-level trough north of the islands will continue to propagate westward, with another low- level disturbance associated with the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Ivo in its wake. Expect increased humidity levels and shower activity Sunday through Monday. Thereafter, lower humidity levels and more stable conditions will return Tuesday, as high pressure rebuilds over the islands, persisting through the remainder of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov