West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 77. Light winds becoming east up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 69. East winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 77. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 81. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 71. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 82. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64. East winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 39 to 51. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 56 to 72. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 68 to 75. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 61. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69 to 76. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 66 to 81. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 53 to 69. East winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 66 to 83. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The trades will ease and shift east-southeasterly today and Saturday, as a front approaches from the west. Fairly dry conditions will persist during this time, with light showers limited primarily to windward and mauka areas. A weakening front may bring an increase in rain chances Sunday and Monday, as it moves into the western islands. A breezy trade wind pattern is then expected to return Tuesday through late next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a front is located a few hundred miles west of state while a weakening ridge of high pressure is positioned just to the north of the islands. The gradient has responded, with the trade winds decreasing into the light to moderate range across the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover in some windward locales. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows very little if any shower activity across the state. Main short term concern revolves around rain chance during the next couple days.
A weakening front will gradually approach the islands from the west today and Saturday, easing the trades and shifting them around to an east-southeast direction. Rather dry weather is expected to persist through Saturday, as the deeper moisture associated with the front remains to the west and northwest of the state. The model solutions appear to be coming into better agreement Sunday and Monday, showing a slight increase in deep moisture and an increase in rain chances across the western islands. A transition back to a breezy trade wind pattern is then expected Tuesday through late next week.

Aviation

The trades will ease and shift east-southeast today and tonight, as a front approaches from the west. The winds will be light enough to allow daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes to develop in many areas. Rather dry conditions will persist, with light showers limited primarily to windward areas.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are anticipated today.

Marine

Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds will continue through the weekend as a cold front approaches and moves into the area. This will allow localized land and sea breeze conditions to develop near sheltered coasts over the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly trades will return early next week as the surface ridge strengthens to the north and stalled frontal boundary diminishes in the area.
Surf along exposed east-facing shores will trend down today as a north-northeast swell eases. A fresh, short- to medium-period north-northeast swell from a gale centered around 1200 nautical miles northeast of the state is forecast to arrive over the weekend. This new swell will support surf holding through the weekend. Short-period and choppy conditions are expected to return by midweek as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state.
Surf along north- and west-facing shores will trend up beginning Saturday as a fresh west-northwest swell arrives from a broad gale that was located around 1500 nautical miles northwest of the state, south of the Aleutians near the Date Line. This swell will peak early next week before gradually lowering into midweek.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain near the seasonal average into March.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov