West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 69 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Independence Day: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will persist through the next several days, building over the weekend, and maintaining a moderate trade regime. Shower activity associated with these trades will focus predominately on windward and mauka areas during this time with exception to this weekend as a drier air mass meanders over the islands inducing a drying trend and limiting shower activity.

Discussion

A broad high pressure ridge will persist just north of the Hawaiian Islands through the foreseeable future. Trades will strengthen by the start of the weekend, becoming more moderate to locally breezy, namely in areas that are typically more wind- prone. Latest radar observations continue to depict pockets of moisture moving into windward and mauka areas, however, this will gradually lessen over the upcoming weekend as a drier airmass meanders over the islands.
As this drier airmass succumbs the state, afternoon relative humidity values will plummet into the mid- to upper- 40s across many leeward areas. Light passing shower activity will aid to maintain values in the 50s for windward and mauka areas beginning today and lasting through the weekend.
By the start of next week, high pressure ridging will begin to slide southward and build, further strengthening the trades through the outlook period. Excess moisture associated with the remnants of Post-tropical Cyclone Douglas will likely be transported within the trade wind flow toward the Hawaiian Islands, increasing shower activity once again over windward and mauka locations through much of next week.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. Low cigs and SHRA should focus over windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas. MVFR conds possible otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island due to SHRA. Conds should improve in the mid morning hours.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb blw 090 downwind of island terrain.

Marine

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep trade winds blowing across the region into much of next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect into the weekend. SCA winds will remain close to advisory thresholds into next week with minor fluctuations in strength of the trade winds.
A small, long period south swell moving through the Hawaii region will hold through Saturday, keeping surf heights just below south shore summertime average surf heights into the weekend. Another overlapping moderate, long period south-southwest swell will fill in Saturday afternoon and evening, boosting surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday and Monday. This swell will slowly fade from Tuesday through the middle of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to locally strong trades hold. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny into next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov