West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 71 to 77. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 71 to 80. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 67 to 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 64 to 82. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 55 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 64 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 67 to 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A plume of moisture remains over the eastern end of the state, bringing clouds and showers to the Big Island. Trade winds are starting to filter back into the state, and with the returning trades, expect a return to a more typical trade wind pattern over the next couple of days.

Discussion

Have made some changes to the grids to nudge the forecast to the latest solution of the GFS. No significant changes to the forecast.
Satelite derived precipitable water (PW) continues to show elevated values over the southern end of the state. The overnight Hilo sounding continues to show PW values over 2 inches, which is well above normal. A trough near Oahu this morning continues to move to the west. As the trough moves away, we can expect trade winds to slowly build in from east to west. Moisture will linger, but the focus of showers should return to more typical windward sides of the islands. Expect the trade wind pattern to persist into next week.
An upper level low is expected to remain far to the northeast of the state heading into the weekend and then lift northward. Dewpoints remain in the low 70s across the state, and when combined with the light winds, it makes it feel warm and muggy. Models suggest dewpoints will drop back into the upper 60s Friday night, providing some relief from the muggy conditions.

Aviation

The trade winds have set up, which combined with moisture being advected in has allowed for showers to continue this morning. Satellite shows a mix of clear skies to mostly cloudy skies because of this, with ceilings generally ranging from VFR to MVFR. The lower ceilings, and at times visibility, are due to the showers and clouds. Expect these conditions to continue over the until around sunrise or so, with drier air gradually working into the region later in the day.
AIRMET Sierra remains for the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, and Molokai through at least 10Z. Showers should wrap up between 12-15Z for most sites, with the forecast showing drier trade wind conditions for the late morning and afternoon.
For sites PMDY and NSTU, the forecast shows an increase in northeasterly to easterly winds respectively between 18-21Z. Continued the trend based on the GFS, with the stronger winds lingering later in the day for PMDY. Will need to continue to monitor observations and model today, and adjusted accordingly.

Marine

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will gradually return from east to west across the island chain today and then persist into the weekend.
The current moderate mid-period south swell will continue to steadily decline over the next few days with below average surf expected by the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will gradually decrease and will remain near seasonal averages through Saturday due to east and northeast swells generated by former tropical cyclones. Surf along north facing shores continues to receive a small bump due to Lowell. This short-period northwest swell will quickly fade, allowing surf to become tiny along north facing shores today as Lowell weakens and tracks westward away from the islands.

Fire weather

Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due light winds and lingering moisture. Expect a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Big Island this afternoon. Temperature inversion heights are expected to remain elevated or weak.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov