West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 78. East winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 84 to 89. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 79. North winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 84 to 89. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated light showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 76. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated light showers in the evening. Lows around 53 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated light showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70. Northeast winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 69 to 88. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 69 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Drier trade winds will prevail into early next week with light showers on the windward side of the islands. A weak disturbance will lift out of the deep tropics towards the middle of next week bringing a slight uptick in trades, increased humidity, and a better chance for showers.

Discussion

Morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a large upper level low well northeast of the state and generally dry northwest flow aloft as a weak short wave moves southeast over the area. Remnant moisture and showers remain west and southwest of the Big Island and will gradually dissipate through the morning.
Drier air in prevailing trade winds will continue through the weekend. Typical trades weather is expected over the next few days with occasional light showers across the windward side of the islands each day.
A tropical disturbance currently several hundred miles southeast of Hilo will move northwestward over the next several days. NHC forecast has dropped to a 10% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next 7 days. Most likely scenario is for this feature to help pull tropical moisture into the area, though how much and when will depend on its track. For now expect precipitable water and dew points to increase once again with a small increase in trade winds and higher precipitation chances towards the middle of next week.
Tropical Storm Norbert is currently around 1820 miles ESE of Hilo, moving west-northwest at 9 mph. This system is now forecast to remain at Tropical Storm strength through Wednesday, when it will still be southeast of Hawaii. There remains higher than normal uncertainty on where this storm will track as it approaches, so confidence in impacts – if any – to the islands remains low.

Aviation

A large area of low pressure centered approximately 1,200 miles northeast of the islands is disrupting the downstream pressure gradient back to the islands. This has resulted in weaker regional trade winds that will persist through the weekend. Winds may become light enough within more wind-protected leeward areas to initiate local breezes. Relatively drier northerly air is working its way in across the state and will limit shower activity.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for Big Island's north and east-facing slopes through 6 AM HST with improving conditions thereafter.

Marine

Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue through the forecast period. A tropical disturbance moving in from the trade winds may bring an increase of showers to the coastal waters by Tuesday into Wednesday.
Surf along south facing shores will gradually decline through the weekend as the small medium to long period energy slowly fades. A low in the south pacific near Australia and New Zealand will bring the potential for a moderate long period swell for Hawaii late next week.
East facing shores will also remain at small to moderate through the forecast period due to the fresh to locally strong trade winds. Flat to tiny surf along north facing shores is expected through the forecast period.

Fire weather

Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due light to moderate winds and the effects of recent rainfall. Inversion heights are expected to remain elevated or weak through Monday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov