Hurricane Nolo tracks slowly north, continues strengthening

Hurricane Nolo churned north-northwest at 5 mph toward Hawaiʻi Island, covering about 50 miles overnight, the National Weather Service reported shortly after 5 a.m. today. A tropical storm warning and watch is in effect for Maui County.

The hurricane with winds then clocked at 85 mph was located about 380 miles south-southeast of Honolulu or about 185 miles south of South Point, Hawaiʻi Island. Forecasters continued a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for the Big Island.

Big Island residents can expect tropical storm force winds by midday today, with hurricane-force winds possible tonight. For Maui County, the earliest reasonable arrival of tropical storm winds is predawn Saturday.

Overview

Weather service forecasters report that Hurricane Nolo is moving slowly northward, and they predicted it will continue on that path through today.

“Nolo is then forecast to make a sharp turn to the west late tonight into Saturday as it strengthens to a major hurricane,” they said. Then, “Nolo is forecast to continue westward through the weekend
with the center passing south of the state. However, impacts from Nolo will be felt well outside the center of the storm.

Bands of intense rain and thunderstorms accompanying Nolo will reach the Big Island and Maui County over the next couple of days, forecasters said.

“Excessive rainfall is possible which could lead to locally catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides across windward and southeast Big Island,” according to the National Weather Service. “Flooding can occur even in areas not usually prone to flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches with localized higher amounts of 20 inches. On Maui, additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts. Outer rain bands associated with Nolo are expected to reach the other smaller islands, and will be enhanced by the terrain.”

Nolo could generate large and rough surf and dangerous rip currents on south- and southeast-facing shores, especially on the Big Island. A high surf advisory remains in effect for south- and east-facing shores of Hawaiʻi Island and east-facing shores of Maui and Molokaʻi.

Tornadoes and large waterspouts will be possible associated with Nolo, mainly over and near the Big Island, along and to the right of the track of the tropical cyclone.

Potential impacts

Potential impacts include flooding, strong winds and storm surges on coastlines.

Flooding: Forecasters urged residents to protect against life-threatening rainfall and flooding with possible devastating impacts across the Big Island. Heavy rain may trigger evacuations and rescues. Heavy rain may overwhelm rivers and streams, sending deadly runoff into valleys, gulches and low-lying areas. Drainage systems may be pushed to or beyond their limits, with water bringing immense amounts of mud and sediment. Officials may need to close roads and bridges, with some weakened or washed out. Motorists should not attempt to drive through flood waters.

Wind: Maui County can expect minimal impacts. However, potential impacts for Big Island residents include damage to roofs and siding materials, along with porches, awnings, carports and sheds. Mobile homes are susceptible to damage, especially if unanchored. Strong winds can turn loose, lightweight objects into dangerous projectiles. Tropical storm force winds can also bring down large trees and branches, damaging structures and bringing down power and other utility lines. Some roads may be impassable. Hawaiian Electric Co. has urged customers to prepare for power outages.

Storm surge: Locally hazardous storm surge is expected to have limited impacts across the Big Island. Possible impacts include localized ocean inundation from storm surges along shorelines and in low-lying areas. Waves may surge into nearshore roads and parking lots, making driving conditions hazardous. Storm surges can also erode sand dunes, bring strong rip currents and damage marinas, docks, boardwalks and piers. Small boats may break away from moorings.

Little to no impacts are expected across the other Hawaiian islands.

As the state prepares for Hurricane Nolo, the Hawai‘i Department of Transportation advises residents to:

• Monitor the Weather-Related Traffic Alerts page on the HDOT website for the latest roundup of storm-related closures, traffic alerts and travel advisories for state highways, airports and harbors: https://hidot.hawaii.gov/weather-traffic/.  The page is currently active for Hurricane Nolo.

• Follow HDOT on social media. During emergency situations, we may use social media as a quicker way to communicate information to media and the public.

Facebook – facebook.com/HawaiiDepartmentOfTransportation

X – @DOTHawaii

Instagram – @hawaiidot

(Update: 5:08 p.m., 9.24.26) The National Weather Service that Nolo has strengthened from a tropical storm to a hurricane, with 75 mph winds. A tropical storm watch has been declared for Maui County.

Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect for Big Island east, north, south, southeast interior, Kohala, Kona and summits.

The storm is located about 450 miles south-southeast of Honolulu or about 320 miles
south of Hilo (15.1N 155.9W), tracking north-northeast, or 20 degrees, at 5 mph.

Residents can expect heavy rainfall.

“Bands of intense showers and thunderstorms associated with Nolo will reach the Big Island tonight,” forecasters said. “Excessive rainfall is possible which could lead to locally catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides across windward and southeast Big Island. Flooding can occur even in areas not usually prone to flooding. Outer rain bands associated with Nolo are expected to reach the smaller islands, and will be enhanced by the terrain, particularly on Maui. Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 30 inches are possible on the Big Island, mainly across windward and
southeast portions. On Maui, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized amounts of 15 inches.”

The National Weather Service said Nolo has been moving very slowly to the north, and it is expected to continue this direction through Friday before making a turn to the west on Friday night. This turn would put the hurricane a further distance away from Hawaii Island than previously forecast as it strengthens into a major hurricane, forecasters said.

“However, impacts from Nolo will be felt well outside the center of the storm,” they noted.

(Update: 2 p.m., 9.24.26) A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Hawaiʻi County as Nolo nears hurricane strength. At 2 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located about 285 miles S of South Point on Hawaiʻi Island, and 460 miles SSE of Honolulu, near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 156.1 West. Nolo is moving toward the north at a very slow pace, near 3 mph. A faster motion to the north or north-northeast is expected later today through Friday, followed by a sharp westward turn on Saturday in the vicinity of the Big Island.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Hawaiʻi County, meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane by this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lānaʻi, Molokaʻi and Kahoʻolawe. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings could be required.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin by late Friday in the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible by early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: For the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 30 inches with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For Maui, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of high terrain. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible. 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Hawaii County (1 to 3 ft). The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.