Malika Dudley’s Maui County Forecast (11/01/14)

By Meteorologist Malika Dudley / Email: malika@mauinow.com

**A breakdown of expected conditions specific to Maui County is presented below in graphical form. All graphics are provided by the National Weather Service in Honolulu. Simply click on the image if you would like to see it larger.**

Alerts
The National Weather Service has extended the HIGH SURF ADVISORY for east shores of Molokaʻi and Maui until 6 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014. Hazardous ocean conditions are expected due to a combo of north swell and increasing winds. Watch out for rip currents, dangerous shore break conditions and strong breaking waves.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is posted for Maui County windward waters until 6 a.m. Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014. Rough seas are expected from 8 to 12 feet. Winds are forecasted out of the northeast at 25 knots, with higher gusts. This advisory has been extended for the Pailolo Channel and Māʻalaea Bay until Sunday, Nov. 2 at 6 a.m. Inexperienced mariners are cautioned to avoid navigating in these conditions.

Today
We expect partly cloudy skies for leeward areas today with scattered showers. Windward and mauka areas are forecasted to get mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers. High temperatures should fall in the range of 82° to 87° with a high of about 68° at 5000 feet. Generally we expect trade winds from 10 – 20 mph with higher gusts. Molokaʻi’s windward side, the makai areas on Lānaʻi and the windward sides of Maui are expected to get winds from 15 – 25 mph.

Sunrise: 6:28 a.m.
Sunset: 5:50 p.m.
UV index at 7 (“high” exposure level)

Tonight
Tonight we expect breezy winds and cloudy conditions. We should get trade winds from 10 – 20 mph, with higher gusts. On and off showers are possible for leeward areas while showers are likely for windward and mauka spots. Low temperatures should fall in the range of 71° to 76° with a low of about 51° at 5000 feet.

Moonrise: 2:12 p.m.
Moonset: 2:20 a.m.
Next Full Moon: Nov 6, 2014 at 12:23 p.m.
Next New Moon: Nov 22, 2014 at 2:33 a.m.

Looking Ahead
Trade winds are expected to decrease slightly over the weekend. Trade showers are expected to continue through the weekend dampening windward sides and even pushing some showers over to leeward areas from time to time. Early next week, trade winds are expected to decrease further. By midweek trades should start filling back in. Another front is expected to affect us next week as well.

Surf & Seas
North: Surf is expected in the head high to overhead range with sets up to 2 to 3 feet overhead at the best breaks exposed to the swell. Early in the day some spots could get double overhead sets. Swell slowly dropping through the day.
West: Breaks that don’t catch the NNW or SSW swells are forecasted to get smaller surf in the ankle to knee high range. Spots that are open to the swell should see head high to overhead waves with sets up to 2 to 3 feet overhead at the best breaks. Early in the day some spots could possibly get double overhead sets. Swell slowly dropping through the day.
South: Ankle-slappers to possibly waist high surf is expected. Generally the farther south you go, the bigger the waves. The best southern exposures could see waves in the waist to chest high range.

Our current mix of north swells (340-360°) peaked last night. Early today we may still see waves a couple feet overhead for the breaks best exposed to the swell. This swell is expected to gradually fade throughout the day and into early next week. A new northwest swell (315-350°) is expected to build late Monday night and peak in the chest high to overhead range late Tuesday.

A moderate trade wind swell is affecting our eastern shores which are under a high surf advisory at this time. Sloppy, choppy conditions are expected for northeast shores.

A reinforcing swell (200-185°) is expected over the weekend, peaking in the knee to chest high range Saturday into Sunday morning before fading out early next week. After that swell subsides, surf goes quiet with not much on the horizon out of the South Pacific.

Keep in mind, surf heights are measured on the face of the wave from trough to crest. Heights vary from beach to beach, and at the same beach, from break to break.

Almanac for Kahului Airport
Maximum Temperature for today:
Normal 86°
Record 93° / Set in 1950

Minimum Temperature for today:
Normal 69°
Record 62° / Set in 2012

Maui Sunset / Image: Krannichfeld Photography

Map of expected high temperatures in Maui County on Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Map of expected low temperatures in Maui County on Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Weather conditions 7am in Maui County on Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Weather conditions 4pm in Maui County on Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Chance of cloud cover 7am in Maui County on Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Chance of cloud cover 4pm in Maui County on Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Wind conditions 7am in Maui County on Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Wind conditions 4pm in Maui County on Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Swell height on Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Swell 1 – Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Swell 2 – Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Surface Map – Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

Tides – Saturday Nov. 1, 2014 / Image: NOAA / NWS

North shore surf yesterday / Image: Jimmie Hepp