11 p.m.: Erick “Rapidly Weakening”; Flossie “Moving Quickly”

August 1, 2019, 5:42 AM HST · Updated August 1, 11:32 PM
Wendy Osher · 0 Comments
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11 p.m.: Erick “Rapidly Weakening”; Flossie “Moving Quickly”
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Erick & Flossie Thursday Forecast Updates: http://mauinow.com/?p=308306
County Urges Preparedness: http://mauinow.com/?p=308340

***LIVE VIDEO: (Start time 11:24 a.m. 8.1.19) Central Pacific Hurricane Center Interview. Meteorologist Malika Dudley interviews Warning Coordination Meteorologist John Branvender

(Update: 11 p.m. 8.1.19)

Erick Continues “Rapid Weakening” Well South of Big Island

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The center of Erick will pass by around 175 miles south of the Big Island tonight, with Tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Erick is expected to become a tropical depression by Sunday, and a post-tropical remnant low on Monday, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

At 11 p.m. on Thursday, Aug. 1, 2019, the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located about 230 miles SSW of Hilo, Hawaiʻi (near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 155.8 West).

Erick is moving toward the WNW near 13 mph with a turn toward the NW expected on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts.

Rapid weakening is forecast to continue tonight, followed by gradual weakening Friday into the weekend.

The CPHC says hazards associated with Erick will include:

  • Swells generated by Erick will build across the Hawaiian Islands tonight and Friday, producing dangerous surf onditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.
  • Moisture associated with Erick will spread over portions of the Hawaiian Islands through Saturday, bringing the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts.

Flossie Still “Moving Quickly” WNW; Will Cross into Central Pacific Basin on Friday

Flossie is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin Friday afternoon. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

At 11 p.m. on Thursday, the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located about 1240 miles E of Hilo, Hawaiʻi (near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 136.4 West).

Flossie is moving toward the WNW near 18 mph and has maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. That’s just below the 74 mph needed for hurricane status.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

(Update: 5 p.m. 8.1.19)

Erick is “Rapidly Weakening” Well South of Big Island

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center says Erick is undergoing “rapid weakening” and is forecast to pass within about 200 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaiʻi tonight.

At 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located about 265 miles S of Hilo, Hawaiʻi (near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 154.5 West).

Erick is moving toward the WNW near 13 mph and the system has maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts.

The CPHC says “Significant weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Erick is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Sunday.”

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Swells generated by Erick will build across the Hawaiian
Islands into this evening then decline late tonight and Friday, producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.

Moisture associated with Erick will spread over portions of the Hawaiian Islands through Saturday, bringing the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts.

Flossie a “Little Stronger” But Should Weaken in Central Pacific

Flossie should cross into the central Pacific basin Friday afternoon. The system has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, which places it at the upper end of a tropical storm designation.

At 5 p.m. on Thursday, Aug. 1, the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located about 1350 miles E of Hilo, Hawaiʻi (near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 134.8 West).

The National Hurricane Center says Flossie is moving toward the WNW near 18 mph, with some decrease in forward speed through early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Flossie has the potential to become a hurricane overnight before a gradual weakening begins by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.

(Update: 11 a.m. 8.1.19)

Erick “Still Hanging On” As A Hurricane:

Erick has maintained its strength as a Category 1 hurricane (74-95 mph winds) in the latest update issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at 11 a.m.  The system was last tracked 285 miles SSE of Hilo, Hawaiʻi and was moving WNW near 14 mph.

The CPHC says the center of Erick will pass within about 200 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaiʻi later today and tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with significant weakening forecast during the next couple of days.

The CPHC says Erick is expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today or tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.  There is also a wind advisory in effect for Maui County until 6 p.m. Friday. Expect east winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph this afternoon through Friday as Erick passes to the south.

The CPHC says the following hazards are expected from Erick:

  • Swells generated by Erick will build across the Hawaiian Islands today and persist across some areas through Friday, potentially producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.
  • Moisture associated with Erick will spread over portions of the Hawaiian Islands through Saturday, bringing the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts.
    Click an image to expand
    Erick five day cone forecast, updated at 11 a.m. on 8.1.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
    Erick satellite imagery, 8.1.19 at 11 a.m. PC: NOAA/CPHC
    Erick and Flossie two day graphical outlook. PC: (8.1.19) NOAA/CPHC

Flossie “Moving Briskly” WNW Across Pacific:

Although the latest five-day cone map shows Flossie system passing along the north edge of the island chain, the National Hurricane Center advises, “There is considerable uncertainty in the 5-day position and intensity, with average errors near 200 miles and 20 mph, respectively, so it’s best not to focus on specifics at that range.”

At 11 a.m., Flossie was located about 1460 miles E of Hilo, Hawaiʻi (near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 133.2 West) and is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin late Friday or early Saturday, when the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will take over monitoring from the National Hurricane Center.

The system is moving toward the WNW near 18 mph with some decrease in forward speed through early Sunday, according the the NHC.

Flossie remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Forecasters say gradual weakening is expected during the next two to three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Click an image to expand
Flossie five-day cone forecast. 11 a.m. 8.1.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC
Flossie (right) and Erick (left) satellite imagery, 11 a.m. 8.1.19. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick and Flossie are being tracked in the Pacific. PC: NOAA/CPHC. (8.1.19)

(Original post: 5:30 a.m. 8.1.19)

Erick Still Hanging on as a Hurricane:

Erick will pass within about 200 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaiʻi later today and tonight according to the latest forecast issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

The system is forecast to bring windy conditions and deep tropical moisture, initially over the eastern portion of the state today, than across the smaller islands tonight through Saturday according to the National Weather Service.

The greatest chance for heavy rain and flash flooding is over the Big Island windward areas, with 4 to 8 inches of rain possible, with localized higher amounts.  There is a flash flood watch in effect from noon today through Saturday morning for the Big Island.

The system remained a Category 1 Hurricane (74-95 mph) with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph and higher gusts.

The CPHC says significant weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Erick is expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today.

At 5 a.m. on Thursday, Aug. 1, 2019, the center of Hurricane Erick was located about 510 miles SE of Hilo, Hawaiʻi (near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 152.4 West), according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Erick is moving toward the WNW near 15 mph. The CPHC says Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

The CPHC says the following hazards are expected from Erick:

  • Swells generated by Erick will arrive in the Hawaiian Islands the next couple of days, potentially producing dangerous surf conditions, mainly along east and southeast facing shores.
  • Moisture associated with Erick will spread over portions of the Hawaiian Islands through Saturday, bringing the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts.
Click an image to expand
Erick satellite imagery. 8.1.19 5 a.m. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick five-day forecast cone as of 5 a.m. on Wednesday, Aug. 1, 2019. PC: NOAA/CPHC.
Erick and Flossie are being tracked in the Pacific. PC: NOAA/CPHC. (8.1.19)
Erick and Flossie two day graphical outlook. PC: (8.1.19) NOAA/CPHC
Erick, earliest arrival times of tropical storm force winds. PC: NOAA/CPHC (8.1.19 5 a.m.)
Erick, tropical weed speed probabilities. PC: (8.1.19 5 a.m.) NOAA/CPHC.

Flossie Holds Steady as a Tropical Storm:

Forecasters are also monitoring Flossie, which is expected to cross into the Central Pacific area of jurisdiction late Friday or early Saturday.

There was little change in strength, with Flossie last tracked as a Tropical Storm with 65 mph winds. Impacts from that system are possible in the Hawaiian Islands early next week.

At 5 a.m. on Thursday, Aug. 1, 2019, the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located about 1580 miles E of Hilo, Hawaiʻi (near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 131.6 West).

The National Hurricane Center says Flossie is moving toward the WNW near 16 mph and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Flossie is forecast to begin slowly weakening on Saturday.

Flossie sound familiar?

You’re not mistaken.  The name Flossie was used before–in 2013 and in 2009.

The name Flossie is from a list used for storms that form in the Eastern North Pacific.  There are six lists for this region, comprised of 24 names each, and the lists are re-cycled every six years.  The 2019 list will be used again in 2025. There is also a separate list of names for cyclones that are formed in the Atlantic. According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, “the only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity.”

For the Central Pacific, there are four lists comprised of 12 names each that are used when cyclones form in the area of jurisdiction.  When the bottom of one list is reached, the next name is the top of the next list.  More on the history of hurricane names can be found HERE.

Flossie five-day forecast cone as of 5 a.m. on Thursday, Aug. 1, 2019. PC: NOAA/CPHC.

Wendy Osher
Wendy Osher leads the Maui Now news team. She is also the news voice of parent company, Pacific Media Group, having served nearly 20 years as News Director for the company’s six Maui radio stations.

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