Hurricane Tracker

2-5 Tropical Cyclones Predicted in 2021 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

May 20, 2021, 9:28 AM HST
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Composite wind field 2015 vs 2020.

NOAA predicts a near-or below-normal 2021 Central Pacific hurricane season with 2-5 Tropical Cyclones. The information was shared as part of the annual Season Outlook, which calls for an 80 percent chance of a near or below normal season.

This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. Agency officials say this is a prediction, NOT a forecast of hurricane landfalls. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones.

“This year we will likely see less activity in the Central Pacific region compared to more active seasons,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Less activity is predicted since ocean temperatures are likely to be near- to below average in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean where hurricanes form, and because El Niño is not present to increase the activity.”

There is a 45 percent chance of near-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service. The outlook also indicates a 35 percent chance for below-normal activity, and 20 percent chance of an above-normal season.

This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific basin, and does not predict whether, or how many, of these systems will affect Hawai‘i. The Central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

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“As we have experienced in previous hurricane seasons, it only takes one direct hit, or even a close call, to have a major impact on daily life here in the Hawaiian Islands,” said Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “Take time to prepare now. Make a preparedness plan so that you and your family stay healthy and safe.”

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The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continuously monitors weather conditions, employing a network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors, and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners.

This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise, which are the basis for the center’s storm track and intensity forecasts. These forecasts are made available to the public and media, and help provide critical decision support services to emergency managers at the federal, state and county levels.

Hurricane Lane in 2018 vs Douglas in July of 2020PC: NOAA.
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