Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 77. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 90. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 89. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 76. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 90. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas as a locally breezy trade wind weather pattern continues through the forecast period. A surface trough passing south of the islands will increase shower coverage over windward Big Island late today into Sunday.

Discussion

There is little to no change in forecast philosophy from last evening. Strong high pressure to the north of the islands will maintain breezy trade winds across local waters through the weekend and into next week. Our airmass will remain stable, but showery low clouds will continue to push primarily across windward and mauka areas. Some showers will push westward across leeward areas. A weak surface trough is passing through the islands, supporting showery low clouds over and upstream from the smaller islands. This trough will pass westward today.
Models show another trough, far southeast of the Big Island, passing westward just south of the state tonight and Sunday. While the bulk of the associated moisture is expected to remain south of the islands, some of it will move over the chain, most notably over the Big Island and Maui. This will likely lead to an increase in shower coverage before the moisture moves west of the islands early Monday. Drier trade wind weather will then resume through the rest of the forecast period. Trade wind speeds will likely receive a subtle boost as the trough passes by.

Aviation

The batch of clouds and showers that were impacting the islands for the first part of the night have moved to the west of the islands. Another small batch of clouds and showers are making their way over Oahu at the 3 am hour, and will likely reach Kauai shortly. These clouds and showers could bring some brief MVFR conditions, but at this time, am holding off on any AIRMETs. The windward sides of the remaining islands have been largely VFR over the last few hours, and are expected to remain so as we head into the morning. Clouds and showers are expected to increase over the Big Island later today and into tonight as another batch of moisture reaches the southern end of the state.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected to continue through the weekend. AIRMET Tango is in effect for mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains below 9000 ft. With little change in the winds expected, the AIRMET is expected to continue through the weekend.

Marine

A ridge of high pressure far north of the state will maintain trade winds mostly in the moderate to locally strong range through next week.
During the past few hours the trade winds have eased off west of Molokai, remaining in the moderate to locally strong range across the typically windy nearshore waters of Maui County and waters south of the Big Island. Thus the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been scaled back to those waters. But this could be temporary.
A surface trough, currently 390 nm southeast of the Big Island, is slated to move northwest into the far southeast offshore waters this afternoon. The trough will take a more westerly course thereafter, grazing the Big Island early Sunday, then dissipate as it passes south of the smaller islands the rest of Sunday and Sunday night. While passing south of the islands, the trough will tighten the pressure gradient around the islands, resulting in a boost in the trade winds to moderate to strong tonight and Sunday. In doing so, the SCA will likely be expanded.
The north-northwest swell has lowered enough where we can cancel the High Surf Advisory for the north facing shores of most islands and west facing shores of Kauai. This swell will continue to lower through the rest of the weekend. Surf along north facing shores appear small next week, with only small pulses from the north and north- northwest.
For the south facing shores, Wave Watch III is indicating no long period pulses of greater than 13 seconds, between Sunday and Tuesday night. A 16 to 18 second period swell, although small, is slated to reach our south facing shores next week Wednesday, and lasting through Friday. East facing shores will have moderate surf, thanks to the moderate to strong trades that will hold pretty much through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov