Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 70. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 67 to 75 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 67 to 75 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 74 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 73. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 74 to 86. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will strengthen even more toward the end of the week, with windy conditions anticipated over the weekend and early next week. Clouds and showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas, with a few brief passing showers possible over some leeward locations. A wetter trade wind weather pattern is possible early next week.

Discussion

Trade winds, rather strong this weekend, will prevail through the forecast period, supported by surface high pressure to the distant N and NE. Breezy to locally strong trade winds are expected the next day or two as a 1033 mb high to the distant N moves S. The high will sink further S this weekend, and combined with some decrease in pressure to the S of the islands, the tightened gradient will support windy conditions. A Wind Advisory will likely be required for at least portions of the area, with trade wind speeds remaining elevated into early next week. Longer range guidance supports what one might expect with La Nina conditions; continued breezy to strong trade winds.
Other than sending some wispy high-level cirrus clouds over the Big Island, an E-W oriented trough aloft several hundred miles N of Kauai is not having any apparent influence on island weather. A relative lack of incoming moisture has kept trade winds on the drier side over the last 24 hours or so, and this general pattern is expected to continue into the weekend, with just a few windward showers. Although showers will tend to be focused over windward and mauka areas the next couple of days, the strong trades will tend to carry showers leeward with greater efficiency, particularly at night and early morning.
Global models continue to indicate a surge in moisture approaching the islands from the SE late this weekend, potentially moving over the islands early next week, in tandem with a low aloft. The sources for the moisture are currently along 125W and 140W, with guidance merging these sources as they draw nearer to the islands. Confidence is low in this outcome, but PoP grids were nudged upward a little early next week.

Aviation

Typical trade wind weather will prevail during the next 24 hours with showers mainly focused over windward and mauka areas through the early morning. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible with any heavier showers, but VFR will prevail. Locally breezy trades will ramp up this afternoon, becoming quite strong overnight. AIRMET Tango for lee turbulence will remain in effect through the forecast period due to the strengthening trades.

Marine

High pressure centered far north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds. The high will strengthen through the day, however, resulting in an increase in the trades over the coastal and offshore waters. A new, stronger high will develop far to the north this weekend which will increase the trades further, with gales in the Alenuihaha Channel possible. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island, and including Maui County windward waters, the Kaiwi Channel, and Oahu leeward waters.
A small, long period west-northwest swell is filling in across the area. The swell should peak today, then lower gradually during the second half of the week and through the weekend. Small, mainly background south swells can be expected through Thursday. A larger, long period south swell is forecast to arrive Thursday night, then peak Friday before slowly declining through the weekend. East-facing shores will continue to be affected by choppy, short period surf. The strengthening of trades later this week will increase surf heights along the east-facing shores.

Fire weather

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for leeward areas of the islands, as the combination of dry fuels, gusty winds and low relative humidity will bring the potential for extreme fire behavior the next couple of days, especially during the afternoon hours.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Leeward, Oahu South Shore, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Molokai Leeward, Maui Leeward West, Maui Central Valley, Leeward Haleakala, Kona, Kohala, Big Island Interior.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov