Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for October 11, 2021

October 11, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 71 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Frequent showers. Lows 70 to 76 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Cloudy with frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Central Maui

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Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 70 to 75. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 25 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 53 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Frequent showers. Lows 70 to 76 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Cloudy with frequent showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 71 to 80. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 86. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 75. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 72 to 83. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A strong surface high pressure area located far northeast of the islands will maintain strong and gusty trades for another day before trending down to locally strong by Wednesday night and hold for the rest of the week. A wet trade wind pattern with locally heavy showers will develop tonight and continue through Tuesday night. A more typical trade wind shower pattern, that is with lighter rainfall, will be returning Wednesday, then continue for the rest of the week.

Discussion

Moderate to strong trade winds will hold for another day before trending softer to locally strong by Wednesday night. This comes about as the surface high, located far northeast of the islands weakens. The surface high currently has a central pressure of 1038 mb, and is roughly 1700 miles northeast of the islands. Locally strong trades will continue through the rest of the week.
Satellite imagery shows the leading edge to a large low cloud field nearing Cape Kumukahi and the Big Island. This moisture field will be spreading westward with the trades, likely reaching Oahu late this afternoon, and Kauai in the evening, bringing with it a boost in trade showers.
To make things more interesting, an upper level disturbance will glance the Big Island and Maui tonight though Tuesday, supplying enough instability to enhance these clouds and showers. Add in terrain influence as well will result in locally heavy showers. Thus the forecast package now include locally heavy showers for windward Maui and windward Big Island between late tonight through Tuesday. An isolated thunderstorm is also part of the forecast for the interior and higher elevations of the Big Island Tuesday afternoon. Along with the increase in trade showers, the dew point will be rising into the lower 70s tonight. It is the good thing the trade winds will be mildly strong. Latest models support the heavy showers to begin easing up Tuesday night, followed by somewhat drier conditions on Wednesday.
The trade winds have weakened just enough so that the Wind Advisory covering the northern part of the Big Island and parts of Maui County, is now canceled. But keep in mind, it is still pretty breezy and gusty, and is expected to hold through Tuesday.

Aviation

With robust high pressure remaining far north and northeast of the state, trade winds will be breezy to locally strong across the island chain, though they will weaken somewhat today through Tuesday. MVFR in showers and lower ceilings will mainly affect windward and mauka sections, with some showers making their way over leeward areas from time to time as well.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for areas over and immediately south through west of mountains on all islands for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for the Big Island along north through east facing slopes for tempo mountain obscuration above 2500 feet due to clouds and showers.

Marine

Strong high pressure north of the state will continue to drive fresh to strong trade winds across the waters through the work week. We should see the trades dip slightly lower over the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all waters through 6 AM Wednesday due to winds/seas or a combination of the two. The SCA will be scaled back as seas lower later in the week, although winds will likely remain at SCA levels over the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through the work week.
East shore surf remains very rough this morning, and with persistent strong trade winds extending far to the east and northeast of the islands, east shore surf will be slow to lower. In fact, surf along east facing shores should hold fairly steady through Tuesday, so we have extended the High Surf Advisory (HSA) through 6 PM Tuesday. As the trades trend downward over and upstream of the islands, east shore surf will follow suit, slowly lowering during the middle and latter part of the work week, and dropping to below normal levels over the weekend.
A series of overlapping south swells will keep south shore surf above normal through mid week, before dropping to mostly background levels Friday through next weekend.
Aside from some trade wind swell wrap, north shore surf will remain very small through Thursday. A small long-period northwest swell due in Thursday night, will give a small boost to the surf along north and west facing shores Friday through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Olomana, Kauai East, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Koolau Windward, Koolau Leeward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Haleakala, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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