Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 77 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 74. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy until early morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 66 to 71. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy until early morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. Light winds.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 69 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 58 to 74. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 87. Light winds becoming east 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will remain on the lighter side over Kauai and Oahu through Saturday, but will be locally breezy over Maui and Hawaii Counties. Winds will increase on Sunday, and will then remain breezy to locally strong statewide for most of next week. A mostly dry weather pattern will prevail for at least the next couple of days, with any showers being brief, and primarily windward.

Discussion

Although moderate to locally breezy trade winds are in place over the SE end of the island chain, supported by a surface ridge about 200 miles N of Kauai, winds will remain relatively light over Kauai and Oahu through Saturday. Breezy E trade winds are still expected over all islands by Sunday, continuing into the middle of next week. Little significant rainfall is expected for at least the next several days. Any showers that do develop will be most likely over windward areas, although the reduced winds may allow an isolated shower to develop over leeward areas of Kauai and Oahu today and tomorrow.
In the short-term, a poorly defined low-level trough now NE of Kauai will dissipate today, while a front far NW of the islands slowly suppresses the surface ridge southward into Saturday. This will lead to moderate to locally breezy E winds over Maui County and the Big Island, with light to moderate E to SE winds over Kauai and Oahu. Satellite and radar data indicate a dearth of upstream low-level moisture, and a mostly dry pattern is expected to continue statewide as a mid-level ridge will remain directly overhead. The reduced trade winds will likely allow afternoon sea breezes to develop, driving the formation of some clouds over leeward areas.
Little overall change to the pattern is expected into Saturday, except the ridge may move even closer, leading to light and variable winds over Kauai and Oahu. As the front stalls and dissipates NW of Kauai, a new high will build N of the islands, leading to strengthening trade winds Saturday night and Sunday. This high will move quickly E through the middle of next week, supporting moderate to locally breezy E trade winds that will likely persist into next weekend. These trade winds will likely deliver a few brief showers to windward areas.

Aviation

Moderate southeasterly flow will remain quite dry through today supporting a continuation of VFR partly cloudy skies and isolated showers for most of the area. Favored sheltered areas such as Leeward Big Island and Kauai will see some afternoon clouds and showers, but VFR is still expected to prevail in these locations. Clouds and showers will continue to be limited through tonight.
AIRMET Tango for mid/upper turbulence between FL200-FL350. Conditions are forecast to improve by late morning.

Marine

The zonal-orientated ridge axis laying across the far northern offshore waters will generally promote gentle to moderate trade winds, locally fresh across eastern island channels and bays, into Saturday morning. The lone exception will be in the Alenuihaha Channel where today’s sustained winds are forecast to reach 25 knots. This has prompted a Small Craft Advisory for the channel through this afternoon. The north ridge will back off as a cold front northwest of the islands passes north of the offshore waters this weekend. High pressure north of the area will build in behind this front and tighten the regional pressure gradient early next week. This will strengthen trades to more areawide moderate to locally strong magnitudes Sunday.
Surf will remain low along all shores into next week. Small, medium period swells out of the north and northwest are expected to arrive through Saturday. A larger northwest swell will arrive Monday and peak later that day. An even larger northwest swell will build into mid week and is forecast to peak on or around Thanksgiving Day. Stronger trade flow over and upstream of the islands will introduce a higher east facing shore wind wave chop from Sunday on through next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov