Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 74. North winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 89. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 87. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Very dry conditions will continue today, with winds remaining light over the western islands, while gentle to moderate trades persist over the eastern end of the state. The trades will strengthen back to moderate levels late tonight and early Sunday, then hold fairly steady through late next week. Drier than normal trade wind weather will prevail Sunday through Tuesday, with a slight increase in trade wind showers expected Tuesday night through late next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1033 mb high is centered around 2200 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge extending southwestward to around 100 miles north of Kauai. Meanwhile, a cold front is located around 600 miles northwest of the Garden Isle. Light to moderate trade winds prevail across the islands early this morning, with the strongest trades over the eastern end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies in most areas, with a few pockets of more extensive cloud cover scattered across the state. Radar imagery shows a few light showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, and hugging the leeward shoreline of the Big Island, but most areas remain rain free. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and trade wind trends during the next few days.
The cold front northwest of the state will continue to approach the islands today before stalling out and slowly dissipating several hundred miles northwest of the state tonight. Light to moderate trade winds will continue over the eastern islands, while land and sea breezes will be common over Kauai and Oahu. Trade winds will begin to restrengthen toward daybreak Sunday, with moderate trades then holding in place through late next week.
As for the remaining weather details, very dry conditions will continue today, with isolated showers affecting windward areas this morning and interior areas this afternoon. We should see a slight increase in shower coverage with the returning trades late tonight and early Sunday. Drier than normal trade wind weather should then take hold Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with a trend upward to more typical trade wind shower coverage Tuesday night through late next week.

Aviation

A surface ridge about 100 miles north of Kauai will maintain light to moderate trade winds across the area today. A boost in the trades will commence tonight, continuing through Sunday. There has been a slight increase in low cloud coverage in the past 6 to 8 hours area-wide, and with these clouds, a few more showers mainly of the light variety. There was one shower off the Kona coast with a cloud top of 12k feet. Otherwise, tops are around 7k feet.
As for today, do expect some morning clouds and a few light showers, favoring the windward and mountain areas of most islands, The background trade winds will be light enough where local sea breezes come into play over the lee and interior areas this morning, leading to some local cloudiness there. A stable air mass due to mid level ridging, however, will limit and suppress most of these daytime buildups.
No AIRMETs at this time and none are expected today.

Marine

A cold front passing by north of the islands will weaken the high pressure ridge and weaken the trade winds today. Winds are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds through early Sunday morning. High pressure will strengthen slightly on Sunday with moderate to fresh trade winds possibly reaching SCA thresholds for the windier waters and channels through much of next week.
Surf in the short term will remain small for all shores into Tuesday. A slight bump in northwest swell energy will increase surf trends along north and west shores from Monday night through Wednesday. A large northwest swell is possible around middle of next week. This swell will likely bring advisory level surf along select north and west facing shores by Thanksgiving Day. Stronger trade winds developing over and upstream of the islands will bring an increase in surf along east facing shores by early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov