Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for December 08, 2021

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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 85. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 73. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 66 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 57 to 73. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The kona low continues to drift westward away from the state today and returning trade winds are producing more stable conditions across the region. Moderate to breezy trade winds are forecast to last through Sunday with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain areas with drier conditions over leeward sections of each island. A weakening cold front appears to drift into the islands from the north early next week increasing shower trends and strengthening trade wind speeds.

Discussion

Satellite imagery shows improving weather conditions across the state this morning as a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to drift westward away from Kauai County. The Flood Watch for Kauai County was cancelled this morning due to improving weather trends. More stable conditions are shown on radar across the state with isolated to scattered showers moving into east and southeast slopes of all islands.
A high pressure ridge builds in north of the islands this week producing moderate to breezy trade winds across the region through Sunday. Returning trade winds will bring a shift to the cloud and shower pattern, favoring windward and mountain areas mainly in the overnight to early morning hours. Trade wind inversion heights into the weekend are fairly stable limiting shower activity for most areas.
Long range guidance shows a weakening cold front moving into the islands from the north with a brief period of increasing clouds and showers for all islands on Monday and Tuesday. A strengthening high pressure system will increase pressure gradients over the islands after the frontal boundary passes through the state. Stronger trade winds are forecast by Tuesday with wind speeds possibly reaching Wind Advisory thresholds by the middle of next week over more wind favored locations of each island.

Aviation

East-southeast trade winds are established over the islands while a band of deep moisture associated with a kona low lingers just west of Kauai. Heavy showers and thunderstorms in the band have remained over waters west of Kauai overnight, and all guidance shows the convection fading and drifting westward today as ridging aloft builds in from the east.
Expect moisture within the stable east-southeasterly trade wind flow to bring MVFR ceilings to most windward areas. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is posted for windward terrain of Maui and the Big Island and may need to be expanded to Oahu before sunrise. Expect MVFR ceilings to diminish by mid morning, while VFR dominates over leeward areas.
AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate turbulence west through northwest of mountains all islands due to building east to east- southeast trade winds. As ridging aloft strengthens today, the inversion will strengthen and drop the AIRMET down from the current 10,000 ft to about 7,000 to 8,000 ft.

Marine

The kona low roughly 700 nm northwest of Kauai is still producing light rain bands that are streaming across the local waters. Moderate to strong thunderstorms are moving north over the far southwestern offshore waters early this morning. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters through tonight due to a combination of locally strong winds and resultant high seas. Winds may become gusty and strong within any passing moderate rain band or thunderstorm but, with high pressure filling from the northeast, strengthening trade winds will maintain an SCA for at least the eastern waters (along and east of the Kaiwi Channel) through Thursday afternoon. So, while regional winds are forecast to gradually weaken late Wednesday over the more western waters, moderate to fresh trades will occur over the typically windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island the next few days.
The ongoing north swell will continue to lower through the day. Surf along north and west facing shores will remain well below early winter averages with only a very small, medium period north northwest swell forecast to arrive late Thursday and Friday. A slightly larger, longer period north swell may arrive next Sunday or Monday. The recent small, lower period wind wave south swell has faded leaving only background long period swells. This will maintain near seasonal south facing shore surf the next several days. East facing shores will see a gradual pick up in short period chop as upstream trades strengthen and spread over the area the next few days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maui County and Big Island waters, including the Kaiwi Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai and Oahu waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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