Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 64. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

South Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 60. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 57 to 63 near the shore to around 46 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 58 to 63. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 42 at the visitor center to around 37 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 57 to 63 near the shore to around 46 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 60. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 52 to 64. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will gradually strengthen into next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas as pockets of moisture ride in on the trades. Total rainfall will be light.

Discussion

Trade winds have returned to the islands this morning as high pressure north of the islands becomes the dominant feature affecting flow across the area. A ragged band of patchy broken to overcast low clouds, marking a dissipated front, lies over Kauai and is poised to reach Oahu within the next few hours, then spread to the other islands through the rest of today. Radar shows very little associated shower activity. The old frontal cloud band will break up later today into tonight, leaving residual moisture near Kauai and Oahu.
As trades continue, look for clouds and showers to favor windward and mauka areas. Residual moisture from the dissipated front will pass west of the islands by Sunday. Moisture from a low to the east will be picked up in trade flow early next week, but no significant rainfall is expected. An upper trough will brush the Big Island Sunday, increasing winds over the summits there.

Aviation

A band of clouds and showers associated with the remnants of a cold front currently over Kauai will drift into Oahu this morning, and then spread into Maui and Hawaii County islands today and tonight. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are expected along the cloud band as it passes through the state. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected with cloud and shower trends shifting back to windward and mountain areas. Trade winds will strengthen this weekend as a high pressure system builds into the region.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for Tempo Mountain Obscuration above 020. Low cloud ceilings will drift into Oahu later this morning possibly expanding the AIRMET Sierra coverage.
No other AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Trades have filled in statewide, and will likely reach the strong category over the typically windier locations around Maui County and the Big Island, as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of a passing front this weekend. These winds combined with large seas associated with a new, west-northwest swell have led to Small Craft Advisory conditions for all Hawaiian waters. Trades may shift to a more northeast direction early next week as the islands become positioned between low pressure passing to the southeast and the ridge to the north.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores is on the rise, which will continue through the morning hours today as a new, west-northwest swell builds down the island chain. Exposed nearshore PacIOOS buoys have ramped up quickly to several feet above predicted levels early this morning, which supports surf heights climbing well above warning levels (largest Kauai). Expect this to hold through most of the day with the offshore buoys still registering a swell height around 20 ft. A gradual downward trend is then expected tonight through the second half of the weekend as the swell begins to ease. Surf heights should dip below warning levels Sunday.
Impacts associated with the surf peaking around the early morning high tide cycle (5-6 AM HST) today may translate to erosion issues with water sweeping across portions of beaches that typically remain dry – with an increasing likelihood of some periodic overwash onto the typical vulnerable coastal roads when the larger, more infrequent, sets roll through.
Although a downward trend is expected through the second half of the weekend, another long-period, west-northwest pulse arriving by Sunday night will support advisory-level surf potentially persisting into Monday. Heights should then dip below advisory levels for north and west facing shores Tuesday through the second half of next week.
Surf along east facing shores may trend up over the weekend in response to a tight gradient that has setup between low pressure centered near 1000 miles east of Hilo and high pressure to its north. Recent ASCAT data showed a packet of strong- to gale-force winds focused at the state north of the low within the 060 to 080 degree directional bands relative to the islands. Guidance has this easterly swell arriving by tonight, then lingering into early next week before easing.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov