Photo Credit: Randy Alona Gallegos

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 81. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 83. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 66. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 54 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 68 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A stable airmass will prevail through the week, with showers affecting mainly mountain and windward areas. Breezy trade winds will continue through Wednesday, before turning from the southeast Thursday and into the weekend. Showers may increase late Sunday and into next week.

Discussion

Satellite and radar show very limited clouds and showers over Kauai and the Big Island, so have toned down the PoPs and associated fields for those areas this morning. Otherwise forecast remains largely untouched.
A dry and stable airmass remains over the islands and will limit rainfall totals for another couple of days. Breezy trade winds will focus any clouds and showers to the typical windward and mountain areas into Wednesday. This overnight soundings showed nearly the same precipitable water (PW) values as 12 hours ago (.69 at Lihue and .9 at Hilo), both below normal for January. Satellite derived PW shows the dry airmass over and immediately upstream of the islands, and models all show the dry airmass sticking around much of the week.
High pressure to the far northeast, a ridge north of the islands, and a low to the southeast will maintain a breezy trade wind pattern over the region into Wednesday. A front to the northwest will factor in to the local weather during the second half of the week. The southern end of the front is already starting to stall out and weaken, and is not expected to hold together as it reaches the islands. However as front does approach the islands, it will push the ridge closer to the islands, turning our winds to a more southeasterly direction. Another front approaching the islands from the northwest Friday and on into the weekend will help to maintain that southeasterly flow. The southern end of the this front is also expected to weaken as it approaches the islands.
Another front approaching from the northwest late in the weekend currently has a better shot of hanging in there and reaching the western end of the state early next week. This front would more significantly boost moisture over the islands, resulting in an uptick in rainfall totals. Not expecting anything of concern at this time, but definitely higher rainfall totals that what is expected over the next several days.

Aviation

Shallow, shower-bearing stratocu has expanded in coverage early this morning resulting in an increase of windward showers for Oahu through Maui. VFR is still expected to prevail, but occasional MVFR will be possible within this activity. Showers will diminish in coverage by late this morning, but the central islands will still observe increased windward cloud cover compared to yesterday. Locally breezy trades remain supportive of lee turbulence for Molokai through Big Island.
AIRMET Tango for lee turbulence below 8kft for Molokai through Big Island and has been cancelled for Oahu.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trades will continue through Wednesday, with winds holding at or near advisory levels in the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most of the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 PM this evening. The SCA has been cancelled for all other waters as seas have dropped below 10 feet.
Winds are expected to ease Thursday and Friday as a cold front approaches and stalls out northwest of the island chain. This should bring a period of light and variable winds to the western islands, while light to moderate trades hold over the eastern end of the state. A brief return of moderate to fresh trades is expected across most of the marine area Friday night and Saturday, with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds potentially developing in advance of the next cold front on Sunday.
Buoy observations indicate that the current northwest swell has lowered just below advisory levels, and as a result, the High Surf Advisory has been cancelled. A new re-inforcing northwest swell will arrive Wednesday and may push surf heights back up close to low end advisory levels along exposed north and west facing shores through early Thursday. This swell will lower later Thursday, with surf expected to be well below seasonal levels on Friday. The next in a series of northwest swells should arrive Friday night and may once again push surf up into the advisory range along north and west facing shores late Saturday through early Sunday with a downward trend then expected through early next week.
East shore surf will remain a bit elevated today as the current small east swell slowly fades. The downward trend will continue on Wednesday, with very small surf then expected for east facing shores Thursday through the weekend, with perhaps a slight boost early next week.
South shore surf will remain very small through Thursday, with a small boost possible Friday through the weekend as a small south swell arrives.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov