Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 76 to 82. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 64. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 82. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 59. North winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 83. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 62 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 57 to 62. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. Light winds.

Sunday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 62 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 73 to 80. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 59. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 50 to 62. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light northeast to east trade winds will return today through Sunday as a surface high passes by to the north of the state. Rather dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with limited rainfall favoring windward terrain. An upper level disturbance will pass over the state Monday and Tuesday and will likely bring a slight increase in rainfall, particularly across Oahu and Kauai, and potentially pop a thunderstorm or two each afternoon over the Big Island. Light and variable winds Monday will be replaced by moderate north to northeast winds Monday night and Tuesday as a new high builds north of the state. Drier more stable conditions are expected along with light to moderate trade winds Wednesday through the end of the work week, as a surface ridge parks itself north of the island chain.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1018 mb high is centered around 600 miles west-northwest of Kauai. Meanwhile a 1003 mb low is located around 1000 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, with a trough extending southward from the low to a location around 600 miles east of Hilo. These features are producing a light northerly flow across the island chain early this morning, with land breezes present in many areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies across the state, with radar imagery showing a few showers attempting to push onshore along north facing slopes of east Maui and the Big Island, while rain free conditions persist over the remaining isles. Main focus during the next few days revolves around rain chances, wind trends and the potential for thunder early next week.
High pressure will build eastward a few hundred miles north of the islands this weekend, while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will be losing steam as it nears Kauai late Monday, and may move into the northwestern islands Monday night and Tuesday before washing out. A new high will build in behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday, with ridging holding in place a few hundred miles north of the islands through the end of the upcoming work week.
A light wind regime is expected across the state through Monday, with light background northerly flow early this morning, switching around to a light northeast and eventually easterly flow this afternoon through Sunday. Winds will become light and variable Sunday night and Monday as the approaching front nears the state, allowing for overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes in many areas. Moderate north to northeast winds will build from northwest to southeast down the island chain Monday night and Tuesday, then ease slightly into the light to moderate range and shift around to more of a typical easterly trade wind direction Wednesday through Friday.
As for the remaining details, rather dry weather is expected to persist through the weekend with precipitable water values holding around an inch or less. Limited shower activity will be confined primarily to windward slopes and coasts with most leeward areas not seeing any rain at all. An energetic upper level trough will move over the islands early next week, with 500 mb temps dropping down to around -14 to -16C as a couple shortwave impulses dive southeastward through the islands. There will be a subtle increase in moisture associated with the front approaching and moving southward into the islands, but precipitable water values remain unimpressive holding around or slightly above 1 inch. All these elements point to a slight increase in rain chances Monday and Tuesday, with perhaps a few heavier showers in the afternoon hours each day. Given the instability aloft however, a thunderstorm or two is not out of the question even with very low PW values, and have added in a mention of thunder over the Big Island during the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday. If some more moisture works its way into the area early next week, thunder chances may need to be expanded to include additional portions of the state. Drier and more stable conditions will build back over the islands Wednesday through late next week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, and a shower or two developing each afternoon over interior and leeward areas with the assistance of localized sea breezes.

Aviation

An upper level ridge over the Hawaiian Islands will keep fairly stable conditions in the forecast today and tonight limiting rain shower activity across the region. A low pressure system remains far north of the state keeping light background trade winds. Expect more variability in the wind directions as land and sea breezes develop over each island through the weekend. VFR conditions will prevail with isolated MVFR conditions possible with showers.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

Winds will be below Small Craft Advisory strength through the middle of next week. Winds will shift out of the northeast and east today through Sunday as high pressure passes by several hundred miles north of the islands and a front approaches. The weak front will stall out and dissipate near or over the Monday night and Tuesday as trade winds return to moderate strength.
The current northwest swell will slowly decline through the weekend, while a moderate, short-period north-northeast swell holds steady today, then declines tonight and Sunday. Another northwest swell will arrive late Monday and peak on Tuesday, likely producing north shore surf just below the High Surf Advisory level. Mainly background south swells are expected through Tuesday, with a slightly larger and longer period south swell possible Thursday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov