Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 61 to 70. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 67. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 67 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 53 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 84. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

An approaching cold front will stall and weaken near Kauai today. Expect trade winds to spread from west to east through Wednesday. Instability associated with a passing upper trough may enhance showers across the state and trigger thunderstorms on the Big Island for the next couple of afternoons. Drier weather will move in during the second half of the week.

Discussion

A weakening cold front lies northwest of Kauai this morning, and light east to northeast winds are noted across local waters. Satellite loop shows an upper trough passing north of the main Hawaiian Islands. Associated instability will slide by over the next couple of days and may be enough to enhance showers statewide and trigger thunderstorms for the Big Island each afternoon.
Models show the front will stall and slowly dissipate as it reaches Kauai. Gentle to moderate trades will advance westward today, reaching all islands by Wednesday. Expect an increase in showers on Kauai and Oahu today, with the building trades focusing rainfall over windward slopes. Maui County and the Big Island will stay in the daytime sea breeze/nighttime land breeze pattern today, with daytime showers, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms on the Big Island, focused over island interiors. Instability aloft will continue to enhance clouds and showers through Wednesday.
Upper ridging will build in Thursday, with broad high pressure setting up across the east Pacific. Trades will become moderate to fresh through the end of the week with the typical windward focused clouds and showers moving in.

Aviation

A clouds and showers associated with a weakening cold front will stall over Kauai today as trade winds will spread moderate east- northeast winds across the state. The north and east slopes of Kauai will see passing trade wind showers, while the rest of the state will stay mostly dry with brief showers favoring windward and mountain areas of each island. Afternoon sea breezes will linger over terrain sheltered western slopes due to these lighter than normal trade winds. Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the Big Island.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, and none are anticipated tonight.

Marine

Moderate to fresh easterly trades will return statewide today as high pressure builds north of the area behind a dissipating front. Ridge will briefly weaken Thursday in response to another front passing to the north, then strengthen Friday through the weekend – likely supporting advisory-level trades in the typically windier areas and channels between Maui County and the Big Island.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will trend up today as a mix of medium-period north-northwest and northwest swells move through. Early morning buoy observations are showing this new energy (peaking slightly later than advertised), which should correspond to a building trend this morning before peaking later today (likely below advisory levels). Surf associated with this swell will linger into Wednesday, then move out Thursday.
A long-period, west-northwest swell associated with a large area of gale- to storm-force winds that has setup over the far northwest Pacific over the past 24-hrs is forecast to arrive by late Thursday and peak near the advisory-levels for exposed north and west facing shores Thursday night through Friday. A downward trend is expected over the weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will begin building by Thursday night as a small, long-period southerly swell arrives from a recent system passing within Hawaii's swell window down south. This source will linger into the weekend before moving out.
Despite the return of trades, surf along east facing shores will remain small due to a limited fetch upstream.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov