Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Friday: Sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 82. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 63. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 69 to 85. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle to locally moderate trade winds are expected today, with an uptick in trades Friday into the weekend. Daytime sea breezes will bring afternoon clouds and some showers over the interior of the islands today A more stable trade wind pattern is expected to focus modest showers over windward slopes Friday into early next week.

Discussion

No changes to the forecast this morning, with the updates last night seemingly on track. Some showers came onshore on windward Oahu last evening in a trade wind flow, and although briefly heavy, were quick moving.
The general forecast philosophy remains the same. The overnight soundings from Lihue and Hilo continue to show precipitable water (PW) values at or slightly below normal for March. Light to locally moderate trade winds are expected to give way to some afternoon sea breezes again this afternoon which will allow for some afternoon clouds and showers to develop. Not expected the rigorous showers and thunderstorms we saw yesterday as stability is starting to increase with an upper level ridge building in.
Trade winds are expected to increase on Friday with a stable airmass overhead, which should return us to a more typical trade winds pattern. A surface ridge to the north of the state will continue to build and the nearby surface trough, that has been helping to keep our winds on the lighter side, will dissipate. The above mentioned upper level ridge will become better established, helping to stabilize the airmass. Moderate to locally breezy trades will produce typical windward rainfall, and aside from afternoon showers over the South Kona slopes, dry conditions will dominate over leeward areas. Little change is expected through Monday.
Trade winds may weaken Tuesday and Wednesday as the surface ridge north of the state is pushed toward the islands. The ridge aloft will erode, but overall, stable conditions will likely hold.

Aviation

Satellite and radar trends show showers and cloud cover scattered across the state, as moist and unstable conditions linger over the islands this morning. Otherwise, the transition toward more persistent easterly trade winds continues to strengthen across the state through tonight. This pattern will focus a majority of clouds and showers over windward and mountain areas through Friday. However, during the transition toward strengthening trades, lighter background winds will still allow for some sea breeze development, with clouds and isolated showers possible in sheltered leeward zones later this afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with possible MVFR cigs in developing showers.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, however a period of potential moderate upper level turb remains possible this morning as upper jet dynamics diminish over the region.

Marine

A weak east-northeast to west-southwest oriented surface ridge north of the state is maintaining light to moderate trade winds across the area early this morning. Expect trade wind speeds to remain in this range through early Friday morning. The surface ridge is forecast to build north of the islands by late Friday, which will likely allow the trade winds to strengthen slightly. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be required starting Friday or Friday night for the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. This SCA may be needed for these waters into this weekend based on the latest forecast guidance.
The current northwest swell will slowly lower this morning. The National Data Buoy Center buoys located northwest of Kauai are already showing signs of the initial energy due to forerunners associated with a new west-northwest swell that is aimed toward Hawaii. This swell is expected to arrive in the islands later today, and then build overnight before peaking on Friday. This west-northwest swell will gradually lower from Friday night through Saturday night. A third slightly larger northwest swell is forecast to arrive on Sunday, and peak from Sunday night into early Monday. Surf produced by this swell may reach the High Surf Advisory criteria along some north and west facing shores of the smaller islands based on the latest wave model guidance. This swell is expected to slowly lower from late Monday through next Tuesday.
A small, long-period south swell is expected to arrive later today, and persist into Friday. This swell will likely provide a slight boost in surf heights along south facing shores. Small background surf will likely return along south facing shores from this weekend into early next week. Expect modest, choppy surf to persist along east facing shores into this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov