Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 63 to 72. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 63. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 67 to 84. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 55 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 68 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

East-southeasterly winds will dominate through this weekend as showers continue to favor windward slopes. An upper trough will enhance showers at times and bring isolated thunderstorms to the Big Island each afternoon through Sunday. Drier and more stable trade wind weather is expected next week.

Discussion

An upper trough persists over the western portion of the state. A high far northeast of Hawaii has an associated ridge extending southwestward, resulting in breezy east to east-southeast flow across the islands. Satellite and radar show low clouds and scattered showers focusing over windward slopes. Trade showers may be enhanced through the weekend as the upper trough slowly tracks eastward across the area. Heavy showers are possible, but breezy trades will ensure any showers will move along quickly, at least over the smaller islands. Strong trades will allow some of these showers to reach leeward areas. East-southeasterly flow produces a shadowing effect west of Maui, a trend that is likely to continue through the weekend. Plume showers may set up and interact with island terrain to trigger longer lived showers along windward slopes.
As the upper trough deepens overhead today and Sunday, temperatures aloft will decrease and lapse rates will steepen, mainly over the eastern end of the state. With the addition of daytime heating, interior portions of the Big Island may see afternoon thunderstorms today and Sunday. For the smaller islands, expect the next three days to be characterized by unstable east- southeast trades with briefly heavy showers, mainly over windward and mauka zones. Expect a return to drier and more stable trade wind weather next week.

Aviation

Breezy easterly trades continue across the state through tonight as an area of high pressure remains anchored north of the region. The trade wind pattern will focus a majority of clouds and showers over windward locations again today, occasionally generating periods of MVFR cigs and vsby. A weak upper level feature moving over the region today will increase moisture and instability, which will enhance thunderstorm chances over the Big Island during this afternoon.
AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence continues across the islands due to locally gusty easterly trade winds. AIRMET Sierra for tempo mtn obsc continues across portions of the islands again today.

Marine

Moderate to strong trades will continue through the middle of next week, with some slight easing possible Sunday through Monday as a front stalls out several hundred miles northwest of the island chain. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been scaled back to include only the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island this morning, and is now in effect until 6 PM this evening. This SCA may need to be extended through Sunday for some of the windy waters around Maui and the Big Island.
The current northwest swell will continue to lower today, with north shore surf dropping to very small heights this afternoon through Sunday. A small west-northwest swell will provide a small boost Monday and Tuesday, with surf then dropping to very small levels again Wednesday and Thursday. A new small northwest swell will bring another boost to north shore surf Friday through next weekend.
The recent period of fresh to strong trades upstream of the islands will keep elevated surf in place along east facing shores through Tuesday. East shore surf will then gradually trend downward from mid to late next week.
Several overlapping south swells will keep south shore surf elevated in the 3 to 5 foot, possibly 4 to 6 foot range tonight through Tuesday. South shore surf will lower to small levels Wednesday through Friday, before trending back up next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov