Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 74 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 63 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 67 to 84. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 66 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast through the weekend. Expect brief periods of showers mainly affecting windward and mountain areas favoring the overnight to early morning hours through the week. An upper level trough and jet stream will keep high clouds over the region through the week.

Discussion

Radar and satellite imagery this morning shows extensive bands of clouds and showers drifting into each island on the trade winds. Expect periods of showers over windward and mountain areas through the morning hours with some of the stronger showers reaching leeward areas. Upper level high cirrus clouds are expected to drift across the state through the week, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors.
In the big picture, the subtropical ridge will remain anchored in place north of the island chain through the weekend. This ridge will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast for all islands through Sunday. A 1030 mb high pressure center within this ridge pattern is currently located northwest of the state producing northeasterly trade winds. As this high center slowly drifts eastward through Wednesday the trade wind directions will veer from a northeast to east direction. The high center will continue to drift into the East Pacific basin from Thursday through Saturday with a slight east to southeasterly shift in wind directions possible by Friday or Saturday. An approaching cold front will stall out northwest of the islands on Friday with little impacts to our island weather.
The weather pattern through the week remains fairly typical for this time of year. The breezy northeasterly trade winds will keep brief windward and mountain showers in the forecast with pleasant weather for most locations from late morning to afternoon. Some isolated stronger showers may reach leeward sections mainly in the overnight hours. Longer range forecast guidance continues to show some added instability from an upper level low setting up just west of the state. This disturbance may increase shower trends, especially over the western islands, on Thursday and Friday. The weather forecast this weekend has improved with an upper level ridge aloft settling in over the region along with more east- southeast winds producing a slight decreasing trend in shower activity for most islands. Eastern slopes of the Big Island will continue to see passing showers through Sunday.
The gridded weather forecast details look good and there was little change in the morning forecast package. Global models are in good agreement with this trade wind weather forecast lasting through Sunday.

Aviation

Locally breezy trades will focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka zones through the period. This will particularly the case for Oahu where trades are pushing a loosely organized band of showers onshore this morning. Prevailing MVFR has developed over Windward Oahu as showers have increased in coverage there. As a result, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration has been issued. The potential exists for further expansion to neighboring islands, but at this time the expectation is that MVFR will tend to be brief at these locations.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for both low level lee turbulence as well as moderate upper turb FL280/420.

Marine

Moderate to strong trade winds will continue through the weekend and into early next week, with only minor variations in strength. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all waters with the exception of windward Big Island through 6 PM Wednesday. The SCA will likely continue through much of the week for the windier areas around Maui and the Big Island.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain small today, then trend up tonight through midweek as a new long-period, northwest swell arrives and builds down the island chain. Surf associated with this swell will peak through the day Wednesday, then slowly lower shift around to a more northerly direction during the second half of the week. Another long-period north- northwest swell will give north shore surf a boost to similar levels over the weekend, before declining early next week.
Surf along south facing shores will steadily lower today, then remain small through Friday. A new south swell is forecast to arrive Friday night, with south shore surf building above the summertime average over the weekend and into early next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain below seasonal levels, due to the lack of a sizable trade wind fetch upstream of the island chain.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for most Hawaiian waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov