Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 69. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 87. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 88. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 71 to 81. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue into next week, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Expect some showers to carry over into leeward areas periodically as bands of moisture move through. Some high clouds associated with a weak upper disturbance lurking to the south will lift northward into the area today through Friday, then clear out over the weekend. A return of drier trade wind conditions is expected next week.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and supports the breezy trade wind conditions prevailing into next week as the ridge remains strong to the north. Showers will favor windward and mauka locations, with the best coverage being overnight through the early morning hours. A residual band of clouds associated with the tail-end of an old front that has drifted into the area will support better shower coverage into Friday as it stalls and slowly diminishes – best coverage over the smaller islands. This band of moisture combined with the gusty trades will drive some showers into our leeward areas periodically. In addition to the trade wind conditions, a decent sized area of high clouds associated with an upper low lurking south-southwest of the state is forecast to lift northward over the area today through Friday which may lead to cloudy conditions. These high clouds should clear out by the weekend. Drier air moving into the area next week will limit shower coverage.

Aviation

A high pressure cell north of the state will help generate moderate to breezy trades across all islands through the remainder of this morning and into the afternoon. Low level moisture caught up in the flow will bring scattered to numerous showers along the windward coasts with isolated showers elsewhere. Expect brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility to accompany any heavier activity.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect above 2500 feet for north through east sections of Kauai and Oahu due to low clouds and showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect below 8000 feet over and immediately south through west of mountains due to tempo moderate turbulence.

Marine

Moderate to strong trade winds will prevail into early next week as a robust surface high passes far north of the islands. The high will move east over the next few days and settle far northeast of the state during the weekend, keeping the trades elevated. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui, and has been extended through Saturday. The SCA will almost certainly need to be extended through Sunday and will likely be in effect through early next week as high pressure builds to the northeast.
A pair of north-northwest swells are due this week. The first swell will be peaking today near seasonal average, then slowly lower Friday and Saturday. The next, slightly larger, swell will arrive Saturday, and north shore surf may approach the advisory level during its peak Sunday. This swell will gradually decline Monday and fade by Tuesday.
South shore surf will remain near to below seasonal average during the next couple of days. Forerunners of a south-southwest swell will arrive Saturday. The swell will likely peak above seasonal average Sunday and decrease Monday and Tuesday.
The steady trade winds discussed above will generate rough trade wind swell and keep east shore surf near seasonal average.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov