Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. North winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 65 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64. East winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 74 to 82. East winds around 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 68 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 57 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 68 to 88. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The mostly dry weather pattern will continue. Light to moderate trade winds will deliver limited moisture to windward areas, mainly during nights and mornings. Afternoon sea breezes will prompt some clouds over leeward and interior areas, but very little rainfall is expected. Locally breezy trades may develop this weekend.

Discussion

Virtually no change to the existing weather pattern for the next several days. Light to moderate trades will favor a hybrid sea breeze regime each afternoon with clouds and the occasional isolated light shower favored over the most sheltered locales. Subtle changes in the intensity and position of the governing high will cause a slight strengthening of trades on Tuesday before weakening again during mid-week. Winds in this regime will be lightest and more veered to SEly near Kauai with stronger E winds near the Big Island. Otherwise, trades will deliver limited moisture to windward areas overnight and during the mornings. Even so, land breezes may be sufficiently strong to keep moisture offshore at times.
The CIMSS satellite PWAT product shows a drier airmass (PWAT < 1″) advancing westward toward the islands with the lion's share of drier air residing immediately above the trade inversion per GFS forecast soundings. Despite the tendency for increased mid-level troughing after mid-week, dry advection centered around 700mb will tend to offset losses in stability in continued maintenance of the dry pattern. Locally breezy trades return this weekend.

Aviation

A surface ridge to the north of the islands is maintaining the light to moderate trade wind pattern that is expected to remain in place for the foreseeable future. A stable airmass over the islands is limiting clouds and showers, with VFR conditions prevailing. Clouds over the leeward slopes of the Big Island are expected to redevelop later this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Winds are expected to be light enough at times to support localized land and sea breezes. This will lead to clearing at night, and some cloud development during the afternoon hours. Isolated pockets of MVFR are possible, but VFR conditions are more likely. No AIRMETs in place, and one are expected today.

Marine

A high pressure ridge north of the islands will produce gentle to moderate trade winds for most areas through Friday. These lighter winds will allow near shore sea breezes to develop along western sides of each island during the daylight hours. The ridge will build north of the area starting on Friday night, trade winds will increase into the moderate to breezy range, reaching Small Craft Advisory thresholds, over the windier eastern waters around Maui and Hawaii Counties on Saturday and Sunday.
A series of small, medium period south swells will keep surf along south facing shores elevated over the next several days. Surf heights will drop a bit from Friday into the weekend as south swell energy begins to fade. Long range models continue to hint at southern hemisphere storms ramping up in the Tasman Sea area over the next few days, perhaps producing another long term boost to south side surf starting next week Wednesday or Thursday.
The current small northwest swell will fade going into Tuesday with declining surf heights along north and west facing shores through Friday. Another small medium period northwest swell (300 direction) arrives from late Saturday into Sunday elevating surf along north and west facing shores just in time for the weekend. Eastern facing shores will see small wind wave chop through Friday with east shore surf heights rising through the weekend as trade winds strengthen.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov