Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. North winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 66 to 72. East winds up to 20 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 44 to 55. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 72 to 81. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Light winds.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 89. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Mostly dry and stable conditions with light to moderate easterly trade winds will continue through Friday. The best chance for light showers will be overnight through the early morning hours over windward areas. Although leeward cloud coverage may increase through the afternoon hours where localized sea breezes form, rainfall chances will remain limited. A return of breezy trade wind conditions is expected this weekend into early next week.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the light to moderate easterly trades holding into Friday, then trending up over the weekend as the ridge strengthens to the north. Limited moisture combined with a strong subsidence inversion around 5000 ft supports the stable conditions persisting each day. This suppressed environment will limit rainfall chances, even with a weak mid- to upper-level trough moving through from east to west Thursday through Friday. Despite some afternoon cloud development over our leeward areas where sea breezes form, very little to no rainfall is anticipated. Windward shower coverage may trend up over the weekend through early next week as breezy trades return.

Aviation

Surface high pressure northeast of the state will allow for light to moderate trades to persist trough the remainder of this morning. With a relatively dry atmosphere will in place, expect only isolated showers to affect mainly windward sides of the islands. By early this afternoon, brief sea breezes may develop along portions of the leeward coasts.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect and none are anticipated today.

Marine

A ridge will linger north of the islands over the next couple of days causing light to fresh trade winds into Friday for most areas. The ridge is expected to build farther to the north beginning Friday afternoon. Trade winds will then increase into the moderate to locally strong range, reaching the Small Craft Advisory threshold over the windier eastern waters around Maui County and the Big Island Saturday and Sunday.
A series of small, medium period, south swells will keep surf along south facing shores elevated over the next couple of days. Surf heights will drop a bit from Friday into the weekend as south swell energy begins to ease. Long range models show southern hemisphere storms ramping up in the Tasman Sea area over the next few days, perhaps producing another long term boost to south side surf starting Wednesday or Thursday next week.
The current small northwest swell will fade, with declining surf heights along north and west facing shores through Friday. Another small, medium period, northwest swell arrives late Saturday into Sunday. Eastern facing shores will see small wind wave chop through Friday. East shore surf heights will rise through the weekend as trade winds strengthen.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov