Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 68 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 70 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds blowing across the state into the first half of next week. Passing clouds and showers will drift through windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. An upper level disturbance may briefly increase cloud and shower coverage this weekend. More stable weather trends continue from Monday into the first half of next week.

Discussion

The satellite picture this evening looks fairly stable just upstream of the Hawaiian Islands with just a few bands of clouds drifting in on the trade winds. A larger band of more organized clouds is setting up east of the Big Island near 150W longitude that may bring a brief increase in clouds and showers to the windward Big Island and Maui by Wednesday night. High level cirrus clouds aloft, associated with a weak subtropical jet stream, have diminished in coverage and drifted just north of the island chain. Local Hawaiian radar imagery shows isolated to scattered light showers riding in on the trade winds.
A high pressure system roughly 1,400 miles north to northeast of the state will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds across the region into the middle of next week. Typical trade wind weather conditions remain in the forecast through Friday with brief passing showers over windward and mountain sections, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. Isolated showers are possible over leeward areas mainly during the overnight hours. The Big Island will see typical sea breezes along the Kona side of the island with clouds building each day and isolated to scattered shower coverage. Evening clouds and showers over the leeward Big Island will trend lower around midnight as the more stable mountain breezes push the moisture offshore.
The weather pattern gets more complex this weekend as a small cold core upper low drifts from southeast to northwest across the island chain. This unstable disturbance will reach the Big Island on Saturday, Maui County by Saturday night, and then drift over Oahu and Kauai from Sunday to Sunday night. This system may enhance cloud cover and shower activity as it passes through each island, especially in the overnight to early morning hours. This translates to a slight boost in rainfall coverage for the Big Island and Maui County by Saturday night and slightly higher rainfall trends for Oahu and Kauai by Sunday night.
The upper low drifts northwestward away from the islands by Monday. A building upper level ridge will bring drier and more stable weather trends lasting into the middle of next week.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue. AIRMET Tango for low-level mechanical turbulence to the lee of higher terrain terrain will remain necessary through at least Wednesday evening.
Bands of low topped clouds and light trade wind shower will affect mainly north and east facing slopes coasts. Isolated spillover showers are to be expected across leeward areas especially in the late night and morning hours. MVFR CIG and VIS probable in passing showers, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail all areas.
Regarding Leeward Big Island, a weak eddy remains anchored just west of the island and is promoting weak onshore flow along the Kona Coast. VFR cloudiness is likely to persist between Kona- Kailua and South Point through midday Thursday and possibly beyond.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds have returned and are here to stay through the upcoming weekend as the ridge strengthens to the north. Trades may become strong over most waters Friday through the weekend as 1030-1035 mb high sets up due north of the islands. Seas will respond and become rough, potentially reaching the 10 ft Small Craft level over the waters south of the Big Island and in the Alenuihaha Channel this weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will hold near the advisory level into Wednesday, then ease through the second half of the week as the reinforcing shot of south swell moves through. Buoy observations south of the islands are reflecting quite the gradient this evening with a 5 ft swell height (12-16 second band) reading at 51004 (southeast of the Big Island) and 2-3 ft within the same frequency band at buoy 51002 directory to the south.
Surf along east facing shores will steadily trend up through the week as the local and upstream trades increase. This should result in rough conditions for easterly exposures by and through the weekend. Confidence remains low for any long-period pulse locally associated with former Tropical Cyclone Celia in the far eastern Pacific.
Surf along north facing shores will remain at seasonal levels (near flat) through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov