Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Very windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds 25 to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Very windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 25 to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 87. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Update

We have just issued a Wind Advisory for Haleakala Summit. The wind speeds are expected to be at or above the threshold through this afternoon, but this advisory may need to be extended into this evening if winds remain stronger than forecast.

Synopsis

Surface high pressure centered far north-northeast of the state will maintain a breezy trade wind weather pattern across the island chain through Friday. An upper-level trough passing from east to west across the area this weekend may produce a slight uptick in trade showers, especially for windward and mauka areas. A drier trade wind weather pattern is expected early next week.

Aviation

Trade winds will be moderate to breezy as robust high pressure remains far north of the area. Showers and any accompanying MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and visibilities will mainly affect windward and mauka sections across the state, with afternoon and evening cloud buildups over leeward Big Island as well. VFR, however, will predominate in most areas most of the time.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of the higher terrain of all islands.

Prev discussion

/ISSUED 347 AM HST Thu Jun 30 2022/ A 1032 mb surface high pressure system is centered near 38N 147W, or about 1325 miles north-northeast of Honolulu. The tight pressure gradient south of this feature is maintaining breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Aloft, a mid-level ridge above the islands is producing relatively stable atmospheric conditions across the state. Loops of satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data show scattered to locally broken low clouds with embedded scattered showers are moving into the windward sides of most of the islands. Scattered low clouds and a few light showers also appear to be moving over some leeward areas of Oahu and Kauai. In addition, patches of thin cirrus clouds are over parts of the state this morning.
The forecast guidance indicates there will be little significant change in our current stable trade wind weather pattern through Friday. Pockets of moisture embedded in the low-level trade wind flow will continue to generate low clouds and brief trade showers over windward and mauka areas. Leeward sections of the smaller islands will remain generally dry, but a shower or two may spill over due to the strong trade winds. Expect clouds and a chance of showers over portions of the upslope sections of the Big Island each afternoon and evening. Some thin high clouds will continue to occasionally move over the state in the southwesterly flow aloft.
Note that the sustained winds are just below the Wind Advisory criteria on Mount Haleakala this morning. We will monitor these observations in case the winds unexpectedly strengthen later today. Elsewhere, the forecast guidance indicates the winds may strengthen on the Big Island Summits starting this afternoon or evening. If so, we may need to issue a Wind Advisory later today or tonight.
As we head into the long Independence Day Holiday Weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to be near the Big Island on Saturday. It will then pass from east to west across the remainder of the state from Saturday night through Sunday night. The arrival of this feature will likely cause the atmosphere to become slightly less stable. This may allow some enhancement of the low clouds and showers embedded within the low-level trade wind flow this weekend, especially near the Big Island. There may also be some increase in the coverage and intensity of showers over the Kona slopes of the Big Island each afternoon and evening.
The upper-level trough is forecast to eventually weaken and move west of the state early next week. Therefore, expect a more stable and a drier trade wind weather pattern to develop from Independence Day through Wednesday.
AVIATION… Trade winds will be moderate to breezy as robust high pressure remains far north of the area. Showers and any accompanying MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and visibilities will mainly affect windward and mauka sections across the state, with afternoon and evening cloud buildups over leeward Big Island as well. VFR, however, will predominate in most areas most of the time.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of the higher terrain of all islands.

Marine

Surface high pressure northeast of the state will produce a tight enough pressure gradient back down toward the state to maintain moderate to fresh trades the next several days. Winds will be locally strong, particularly through island bays and channels as well as south of Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for winds through tonight with an extension likely into the weekend. Seas will generally remain under SCA heights this week but conditions may become rough and approach advisory level thresholds through the Alenuihaha Channel and in those waters south of Big Island the next couple of days.
Surf along all shores will remain small going into early July. The lone exception will be along east facing shores where more rough sea state conditions will exist due to elevated east wind waves in response to stronger local and upstream trades. The recent small, longer period south swell is trending down, as is the small southeast pulse, to just very small background energy. Surf along north facing shores will remain near flat through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Haleakala Summit.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters, except the Big Island Windward Waters and the Maui County Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov