Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 71. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Independence Day: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 88. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Independence Day: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the state will keep breezy conditions in place through the rest of the 4th of July Holiday weekend. An upper level trough will pass over the islands today, bringing an uptick in windward showers to the island chain and sending a few more showers into leeward communities. A more typical trade wind weather pattern is then expected tonight through Saturday, with a gradual easing of the trades Tuesday through Friday, with a potential rebound in the trades next weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1034 mb high is centered around 1200 miles north of Honolulu, and is driving breezy trades across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows a band of low clouds moving through the central islands, resulting in mostly cloudy conditions from Oahu to Maui. Meanwhile, variably cloudy skies prevail over windward sections of Kauai and the Big Island, with partly cloudy conditions in the leeward sections of these isles. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving through Oahu and Maui County, with scattered windward showers over Kauai and the Big Island. Main short term focus continues to revolve around trade wind trends and rain chances.
High pressure north of the islands will keep breezy conditions in place through Independence Day, with only minor fluctuations in strength. Winds have dropped below advisory levels overnight, and little change in strength is expected during the next couple days. Therefore the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. A couple fronts will slide southward well to the north of the islands through the first half of the week, eroding the eastern periphery of the high and weakening the gradient over the islands. This should result in an easing of the trades beginning Tuesday, with a more noticeable easing expected Wednesday through Friday with moderate trades prevailing. The trades could pick back up to breezy levels next weekend as high pressure strengthens northwest of the island chain.
As for the remaining weather details, a trough aloft will dampen out as it lifts northwestward through the islands today, but as it does, it will drag some deeper moisture through the islands and elevate inversion heights. As a result, we should see a fairly shower morning for windward areas across the state, with showers also reaching leeward communities at times. Conditions should then begin to improve during the afternoon hours, although scattered showers will continue to affect the islands. Additionally, it still appears that conditions could destabilize enough to allow for a thunderstorm or two to develop over the Big Island this afternoon.
Weak troughing aloft is forecast to linger over the islands tonight into next weekend, but drier boundary layer conditions will overspread the state during this time. This should bring a return of more typical, but slightly drier than normal, summertime trade wind conditions. Passing light showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower reaching leeward areas from time to time. Some deeper moisture may try to work in from the east next weekend, potentially bringing an increase in trade wind showers.

Aviation

A strong area of high pressure anchored north of the islands will continue to generate breezy trades through the TAF period, focusing showers and lower clouds across mainly windward and mauka slopes through tonight. Additionally, sea breeze clouds are expected across sheltered leeward sections of mainly the Big Island again this afternoon, before diminishing late tonight during the transition to land breeze. Mainly VFR cigs and vsby are expected to continue across leeward zones today, while conditions continue to deteriorate toward MVRF across windward slopes as showers and lower clouds continue to expand in areal coverage through this morning.
AIRMET Sierra continues for mountain obscuration across most windward zones due to clouds and showers this morning. Additionally, AIRMET Tango remains in effect through today as the breezy trades continue low level mechanical turbulence leeward of mountains.

Marine

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep fresh to locally strong trade winds blowing across the region through Wednesday. Trade wind speeds will decrease into the moderate to fresh range by Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues for all coastal waters through Monday afternoon. SCA winds will likely scale back to the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island by Monday night.
No significant swells are expected for all shores into next week. The strong trades will support rough and choppy surf along east facing shores. The current small south swell will continue to lower today and Monday. The next small long period south swell will arrive on Wednesday and then slowly fade into Friday. The forerunners of another small long period south swell will arrive by next Saturday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov