Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds around 20 mph becoming 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 62 to 73. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 49 to 55. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 62 to 73. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southeast up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 78 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 91. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 62 to 73. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 91. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue through the upcoming weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Shower coverage has increased overnight, which will persist today as remnant moisture from former Tropical Cyclone Bonnie moves through. Another surge in moisture and winds is expected this weekend as the remnants of Hurricane Darby pass south of the Big Island.

Discussion

Satellite-derived precipitable water showed a surge in moisture associated with the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Bonnie moving through this morning. Peak rainfall totals over the past 12-hrs (as of 2 AM HST) reflects this with values hitting the 2 to 3 inch range. A combination of breezy trades, enhanced moisture, and the trade wind inversion now up to 10,000 ft supports a wet trade wind pattern continuing today. Some showers will make it into our dry leeward areas periodically.
Once the remnant moisture associated with Bonnie shifts away from the area tonight through Friday, the focus will turn to Hurricane Darby, which is currently located about 1400 miles east- southeast of Hilo. As Darby enters the central Pacific basin tonight into Thursday, a combination of cooler waters, mid-level dry air, and increasing shear will translate to a weakening trend as it approaches the state. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center reflects this and has Darby degenerating into a trough by the end of the weekend as it passes by to the south. Despite the weakening trend, strong trades along with plenty of moisture accompanying this feature moving through will translate to another wet and windy pattern for the islands — beginning as early as Friday night for the eastern end of the state.

Aviation

A high pressure system far north of the region will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast. Deep tropical moisture, from former Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, is spreading westward across the islands today. Expect enhanced scattered to numerous showers with this rising tide of moisture. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast over windward airfields for the next 24 hours. Leeward site will also see passing showers with brief MVFR conditions possible.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscurations over windward and mountain slopes of the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai for elevations above 2000 feet due to low clouds and showers. This AIRMET will decrease in coverage later this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of all island mountains. This AIRMET will likely continue through Thursday.

Marine

A somewhat active period is expected in Hawaiian waters over the next week or so. Strong high pressure to the N will ensure that fresh to strong trade winds will prevail, with surges to near- gale force in the channels. In addition, a pair of solid S swells are expected to produce Advisory-level surf along S facing shores. Also, moisture associated with the remnants of Bonnie will move through the area today, with what is expected to be a weakening Post-Tropical Remnant Low Darby passing S of the islands this weekend. Extreme high tides the next couple of afternoons may lead to salt-water flooding of low-lying shoreline areas.
Barely discernible remnants of Bonnie, in the form of increased showery low clouds, will support an increase in trade wind speeds and showers as it moves W over the area through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for a majority of the area. Trade winds speeds may briefly ease a little thereafter, but another surge in wind speeds and gusty showers are possible this weekend as what is now Hurricane Darby weakens to a Post-Tropical Remnant Low and dissipates while passing S of the Big Island. Greatest chance of increased winds, seas and showers with Darby will be over Big Island waters.
Buoy observations indicate that surf along S facing shores will be on the rise today, as long-period energy that had been observed at buoy 51004 is now also being observed at buoy 51002. A High Surf Advisory has been issued through Thursday for S facing shores of all islands. Surf will ease a little late Thursday into Friday, but will be reinforced with a larger, longer period (20-22 sec) S swell late Friday through the weekend. Peak surf heights with this second swell will easily reach HSA criteria (10 foot faces), with potential for surf to reach High Surf Warning levels along S shores (15 foot faces).
Surf along E facing shores will remain elevated and rough through the week. A small, 10-12 sec period ESE swell will also move through the next couple of days, but greatest contribution to seas will be from the short-period trade wind swell. Swells generated by Darby are expected to add to the mix this weekend, and will probably be biggest along E facing shores of the Big Island, where a High Surf Advisory may be required.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Kona, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov