Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 84 to 89. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 77. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 71. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 69 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Windy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 60 to 73. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 77 to 88. East winds 15 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 75. East winds 10 to 30 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 87. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A surface high pressure system located far north of the Aloha State will maintain strong and gusty trade winds today. A drier than normal, breezy trade wind weather pattern is expected from tonight through Tuesday. A return to a more typical trade wind weather pattern with windward focused showers is expected starting around mid-week. Finally, a very large south swell will continue to produce dangerous breaking waves and localized inundation of some low-lying sections of the south facing shores of all islands into Monday.

Discussion

A 1031 mb surface high pressure system remains anchored near 39N 157W, or about 1170 miles north of Lihue. Elsewhere, the remnant surface trough, which was former Tropical Cyclone Darby is now evident more than 200 miles south-southwest of Lihue. This feature is moving westward at about 20 mph. The main Hawaiian Islands remain sandwiched in the very tight pressure gradient between the remnants of Darby and the surface high. This is producing strong trade winds across most of the state early this morning. Winds over land are expected to remain below the Wind Advisory criteria today. The winds on the Summit of Mount Haleakala continue to be strong, but they have dropped well below the Wind Advisory threshold for the higher elevations this morning.
Satellite imagery shows a large area of broken stable stratocumulus clouds filtering in toward the islands from the east-northeast. This is an indication of the drier conditions that are becoming established across the region as the residual moisture associated with former Tropical Cyclone Darby are pushed west of the state. The forecast guidance shows that the drier trade wind weather pattern will likely continue through Tuesday. We are also expecting a gradual downward trend in trade wind speeds from tonight through Tuesday, but breezy conditions will likely persist. Note that the combination of persistent areas of drought, low daytime humidity values, and gusty trade winds may elevate fire weather concerns during the first half of the new work week. A return to a more typical trade wind weather pattern with windward and mauka showers is expected starting around mid- week. Once this weather pattern become established, it may persist through the end of the week.

Aviation

High pressure north of the state will keep breezy trade winds in place through tonight. Temporary MVFR cigs and isolated MVFR vsbys will be possible in showers across windward locales through mid morning, before drier conditions become established. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail during the next 24 hours.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over windward sections of most islands. Conditions will likely improve by mid morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will remain in place through the day and possibly into tonight.

Marine

A surface trough in the far south- southwest offshore waters will continue to weaken below gale- force in the next couple of hours and move west of the area later today.
A strong, surface high pressure system will remain far north of the islands. The gradient between the high and the trough mentioned above will continue to produce strong to localized near gale force winds today, then weaken slightly to the fresh to locally strong speeds through much of next week. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended for all coastal waters through tonight due to the combination strong winds, and elevated seas from local wind waves and a large south swell.
A historic south swell is expected to peak today, producing Warning level surf into Monday. Thus, the High Surf Warning has been extended through Monday afternoon as this swell slowly subsides through much of next week. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued to account for the combination of large surf and regular predicted water levels that could lead to flooding of beaches that typically remain dry, and harbor surges, especially at and around the peak daily high tide.
The High Surf Advisory for east facing shores of the Big Island has been cancelled as the swells from Former Tropical Cyclone Darby have subsided. However, surf along all east facing shores will remain elevated and rough into much of next week due to strong persistent trades.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for south facing shores of all Hawaiian Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov