Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 67. North winds up to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 65. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 72 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 81 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist through Tuesday, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Trade winds will trend down briefly Wednesday through Thursday, potentially enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established. Breezy trade wind conditions will return by next weekend.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the breezy trades holding through Tuesday, then trending down Wednesday through Thursday as a broad surface trough associated with former Tropical Cyclone Estelle passes to the north. Showers will favor windward and mauka locations through Tuesday, with a transition to leeward areas through the afternoon periods Wednesday through Thursday where localized sea breezes form. This surface trough passing by to the north combined with a modest increase in moisture and a broad upper low drifting south-southwestward into the area could lead to better shower coverage late in the week and next weekend. With the trades returning, likely as early as Friday, showers will transition back to the typical windward and mauka locations.

Aviation

High pressure far northeast of the state will help maintain moderate trades across the islands through the forecast period. Thus, scattered showers will mainly be limited to the windward coasts and slopes. Expect brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility due to the low clouds and showers. Isolated showers elsewhere.
There are currently no AIRMETs currently in effect.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist through the middle of next week as high pressure remains nearly stationary far north-northeast of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for the typically windy areas around Maui and the Big Island through 6 PM Tuesday. Winds should drop below SCA thresholds Wednesday and Thursday as a trough of low pressure passes by just north of the island chain.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small today, followed by a small bump tonight through Tuesday as a small south swell moves through. A larger, long-lived south swell will arrive Wednesday night, and may push south shore surf near or above High Surf Advisory levels Friday through next weekend.
East shore surf will remain below average during the next 7 days. North shore surf will remain nearly flat through next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov