Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 90. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 52 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 84 to 92. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 52 to 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 74 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 92. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 77. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 71 to 92. East winds 15 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds will continue today with some localized sea breezes expected across leeward areas. A return to strong trade winds, and somewhat dry and stable weather, is due this weekend, with trades gradually decreasing during the first half of next week.

Discussion

As expected, little change to the forecast with the morning package. High clouds continue to stream from south to north over the Kauai on the east side of the upper level trough. A surface trough to the east is continuing to disrupt the trades, and will give us another day of lighter winds.
Both the surface and upper level trough will be moving to the west today, allowing the surface ridge north of the islands to once again become the dominant feature. Trade winds are expected to return late today/tonight, building back in from east to west across the state. Some leftover moisture from the surface trough will get caught up in the trades, and could bring an increase of humidity and showers over some windward areas today. With dewpoints approaching and getting in the lower 70s tonight and tomorrow, temperatures may feel warmer than normal, however the returning locally breezy trade winds should help to offset that feeling.
The high pressure rebuilding to the far north of the state this weekend will result in the trades strengthening Saturday into Sunday. Breezy easterly trade winds Saturday are expected to become quite strong and gusty on Sunday as the winds strengthen and veer slightly more towards the northeast. On Sunday, we should see a drier air mass move in across the state and if you combine that with the gusty winds, it could bring some fire weather concerns. Trade winds are expected to gradually decrease Monday through the first half of next week.

Aviation

As a weak, westbound surface trough moves north of the islands, trades will be light to moderate through today, with localized sea breezes during the late morning and afternoon hours. Most areas will remain VFR. Some cloud buildups and showers, with accompanying MVFR conditions, are possible during the afternoon hours. This is especially the case on Kauai as an upper trough moves closer to the isle from the north. And looking ahead, trades will become more robust beginning Saturday.
No AIRMETs are in effect. As the upper level system closes in on Kauai, there is a chance that an AIRMET for mid- to high-level turbulence may be needed.

Marine

A high pressure system remains centered far north of the region as a weak low level trough passes through the northern waters today. This trough passage will keep trade winds in the light to moderate range, before strengthening into the moderate to strong range later tonight through Sunday as the trough passes to the northwest of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was issued for the windier eastern waters and channels starting tonight, and this SCA will last into the first half of next week.
A long period south swell will peak today just below High Surf Advisory levels, and then lower gradually over the weekend. The highest surf heights from this swell will break along the south facing shores of the Big Island. A second, but slightly smaller long period south swell is expected to arrive Saturday night and Sunday, peak Sunday night and Monday, then lower gradually Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short period choppy surf will remain rather small along east facing shores into the weekend, with a slight uptick expected early next week as trade winds strengthen. Tropical cyclone activity in the far eastern Pacific may send a small medium period east swell that would likely arrive by the middle of next week. No other significant swells are expected.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov