Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 91. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 70 to 77. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 80 to 91. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 91. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 70 to 77. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 91. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 85 to 92. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 70 to 75. East winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 85 to 92. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows 65 to 70. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 92. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 76. East winds up to 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 92. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Southeast wind will focus clouds and showers over southeast- facing slopes of Maui County and the Big Island while afternoon sea breezes bring interior clouds and showers to the western end of the state. Trades return to the entire state tonight into early Sunday.

Discussion

Trades will make a gradual return during the next 18 to 24 hours as the surface trough near Kauai exits stage west concurrent with the southern periphery of the northeast Pacific high pressure building toward the islands. For Kauai and Oahu, continued light winds during the day will once again give way to localized sea breezes, interior cloud development, and a few showers. Reductions to mid-level stability will occur as the resident batch of moisture centered south of the islands works through the area today. This, combined with an uptick in boundary layer moisture will offer potential for a slightly greater convective response compared to yesterday. Over the eastern end of the state, building ESE winds will deliver occasional clouds and showers to favored east and southeast-facing slopes.
As trades become established early next week, the diffuse nature of the pressure gradient suggested by recent modeling puts the islands in a somewhat precarious position in terms of forecast confidence for the strength of said trade winds. While breezy trades are indicated through much of next week, the tightening of the local gradient appears to be more closely tied to pressure falls in the tropics south and southeast of the islands which inherently carries comparatively greater uncertainty. In either case, some semblance of easterly trades will develop on Sunday and persist through most or all of next week bringing a return to a more typical trade wind pattern. As noted in the previous discussion, any additional pressure falls south of the area such as those related to tropical development would have the potential to give local winds another upward nudge during mid-week.

Aviation

Land breezes have pushed much of the clouds and showers offshore overnight over the smaller islands. Trade wind flow will become reestablished over windward Big Island this morning and spread across the remainder of the state through tonight. Leeward areas over the western end of the state may still experience localized sea breezes and inland clouds/showers this afternoon as the trades slowly return. A few bands of showery low clouds will continue to move into east and southeastern portions of the Big Island and Maui this morning, before dissipating by the afternoon. Shower activity will return to a more typical windward and mauka focus tonight.

Marine

A surface trough N of the area will gradually drift northward and weaken over the next few days, allowing surface high pressure to the distant N to re-exert its influence on our winds. As a result, E to SE winds will increase from E to W across the island chain. Winds will remain on the lighter side over Kauai and Oahu today, but are expected to increase over Maui and Big Island waters, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued in anticipation that winds will increase. Winds will likely continue to gradually increase into the middle of next week as the high moves closer, and a potential tropical disturbance passes far S of the islands.
Little significant swell is anticipated through next week. A small short-period NE swell will continue today and diminish tomorrow. The increasing trade winds bringing a gradual increase in short- period waves to E shores early next week. A small, long-period S swell may arrive around the middle of next week, with a small, shorter-period SSE swell expected over the next couple of days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov