Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 89. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 75. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 78 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 74. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 90. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 57 to 74. East winds around 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs 72 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trade winds will prevail across the state through much of the forecast period. Expect afternoon sea breezes over sheltered leeward areas. Dry and stable conditions will limit shower coverage and intensity. Showers that do develop will favor windward and mountain locations during the overnight through early morning hours.

Discussion

With little pattern change noticed over the past 12 hours, there is little change in forecast philosophy from last evening. POP/Sky/Wx grids were altered across windward areas of the smaller islands for this morning to reflect slightly clearer and drier conditions across those areas than anticipated yesterday afternoon. The governing influence of high pressure far north of the main Hawaiian Islands remains blunted by a front 500 miles to our north. The result is trade winds in the light to moderate range across local waters this morning. Increased ridging aloft maintains a stabilized airmass, with limited total rainfall amounts recorded overnight.
Drier air and upper ridging will continue to build over the islands through the rest of the week, dropping inversion heights and increasing stability even further. As a result, shower activity will remain limited, primarily favoring windward and mountain locations during the overnight through early morning periods each day. Additionally, trade winds will ease slightly over the next couple of days, allowing more development of afternoon sea breezes across sheltered leeward areas. This will increase interior and leeward clouds each afternoon and support a few showers to develop during peak heating each day through Thursday.
Friday through the weekend, expect trade winds to increase slightly but remain in the moderate to locally breezy range. While models indicate that a slight, brief uptick in moisture is possible by Sunday, the generally dry and stable pattern should persist well into next week.

Aviation

Light to locally moderate trade winds will continue today, with some local afternoon sea breezes possible. Clouds and showers will favor the windward and mountain areas during the early morning hours. With the afternoon sea breezes, some clouds and showers will build over leeward and interior sections. VFR conditions are expected to prevail with brief MVFR conditions possible in showers.
No AIRMETs in effect, and none are expected today.

Marine

A weak high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep gentle to moderate trade winds in the forecast today. The ridge will strengthen slightly from Thursday onward with more moderate trade wind speeds lasting through the first half of next week.
Long period south swell will remain small through the forecast period. The next best chance for larger south swell activity may begin to develop in the first week of September around a gale to storm force low with a long fetch area, setting up just east of New Zealand. This next pulse of south swell energy may reach the south shores of Hawaii around Sunday September 11th.
Otherwise small surf remains in the forecast along all other shores into the first half of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov