Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. A 20 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows around 68. North winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers early in the evening, then chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers early in the evening, then showers likely in the late evening and overnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will trend lighter through Friday, then remain on the lighter side this weekend, with wind speeds increasing again early next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas during nights and mornings, but the lighter winds will allow sea breezes to drive cloud and shower formation over leeward and interior areas in the afternoons. Showers may be a little more active Friday and Saturday.

Discussion

Thanks to shifting high pressure north of the main Hawaiian Islands, trade wind flow will prevail through the forecast period, trending lighter as the weekend approaches. Winds will strengthen again early next week, becoming locally breezy. A weak upper trough will move in north of Kauai Friday and Saturday, increasing shower coverage. Otherwise, trades will deliver a few showers to windward areas while afternoon sea breezes drive cloud and shower formation over leeward and interior areas. Expect little in the way of total rainfall in the short term as upstream moisture is rather sparse.
Convergence of light trade flow and afternoon sea breeze flow will produce clouds and showers over leeward and interior sections of the islands during the afternoons from Friday through the weekend. Winds may even be light enough as early as this afternoon for leeward convection to develop. Models show an increase in moisture Friday and Saturday, coinciding with the development of a weak upper trough north of Kauai. This will bring an increase in shower coverage as the mixed layer deepens. Otherwise, our airmass will be relatively stable and high pressure building north of the islands next week will drive increasing trade winds that will deliver brief passing showers to windward areas.

Aviation

Moderate trade winds will ease today and trend lighter through the weekend as surface high pressure far north of the state moves eastward and relaxes the local pressure gradient. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to impact windward slopes and coasts, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. Later this afternoon, sea breezes will be possible for sheltered leeward areas, increasing clouds and shower activity across interior locations. Regardless, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period for most locations, with only brief MVFR ceilings and visibility within any showers that develop.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect and none are expected at this time.

Marine

A high pressure system far north of the state will lift northward. Wind speeds will trend lower into gentle to moderate range by Thursday through the weekend. Trades will likely rebuild early next week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was cancelled this morning and wind speeds will likely remain below SCA thresholds into early next week.
Expect small surf along all shores with only background swell expected through Friday. Long period forerunners from the next south-southwest swell are expected late Saturday with the swell building on Sunday. South shore surf will rise to above seasonal average as the swell peaks by Monday, then slowly decline through Wednesday. Decreasing trade winds upwind of the state will lead to a decline in east shore surf through Friday, while waves generated in the East Pacific by Hurricane Kay could send a small long period swell to east facing shores later this weekend and early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov