Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 91. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 71 to 78. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 90. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 91. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 78. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 90. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 90 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 90 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 86 to 93. Light winds becoming east up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 75. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 85 to 92. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 90 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 90 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 92. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 60 to 76. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 72 to 92. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle southeast flow will continue through the weekend with humid weather and afternoon clouds and showers over interior and leeward areas. A light to moderate trade wind pattern will return around Monday and should become breezy during the second half of next week.

Discussion

High pressure far northeast and low pressure far northwest of the state is producing gentle east to southeast flow across the state this morning. The Molokai plume that developed last evening held on through most of the night with continuous showers from east Oahu and along the Koolau range. The Manoa Lyon Arboretum rain gauge located deep in the Manoa Valley recorded 2.74 inches of rain during the past 12 hours. The plume has finally dissipated this morning, but a few isolated showers and clouds still linger across Oahu this morning.
For today, we will continue to see this hybrid pattern with light east to southeast winds across the state. Daytime sea breezes will cause afternoon clouds and showers across leeward and interior areas through the evening. Any showers that do develop will be slow moving and will be capable of producing some locally heavy rain. With the southeast flow continuing through the weekend, we could very well see the Molokai and Lanai plumes once again over Oahu tonight with some scattered showers across leeward and mountain areas. Humidities will continue to remain high through the weekend with dewpoints around 70 degrees, so temperatures will feel warmer than normal.
Early next week, a weak surface ridge is expected to develop about 150 to 200 miles N of the islands, so we should see a light to moderate trade wind pattern develop. Most showers should mainly be focused over windward areas, but due to the trades being on the lighter side, some brief showers will still be possible over leeward areas due to localized sea breeze development. By the second half of next week, global models are in fairly good agreement with a breezy trade wind pattern across the state.

Aviation

Showers increased in coverage over southern and southeastern portions of Oahu for several hours courtesy of leeward convergence downstream of Molokai. These showers are now quickly diminishing and may bring a brief period of light rain to interior and leeward portions of Oahu early this morning before dissipating altogether. Elsewhere, land breezes are favoring dry conditions and prevailing VFR. Emerging sea breezes this morning into this afternoon will once again favor clouds and showers over island interiors during the peak heating period. VFR is expected to prevail but isolated MVFR will be possible with any heavier showers.
No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

A low pressure system far northwest of the islands will continue to weaken the high pressure ridge just north of the state. Expect light to moderate breezes from the east to southeast direction through Sunday. A cold front then stalls north of the region by Tuesday keeping light to fresh easterly breezes in the forecast through the first half of next week. Wind speeds may approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds by the end of next week.
South swell energy will remain elevated through Sunday as another long period swell passes through the region. Once this swell decreases by Sunday night, only background south swell energy will prevail through the first half of next week.
A small north-northwest swell will keep north shore surf elevated today, before fading into almost flat levels on Monday. In the longer term, north shore surf could get another slight boost as a small north-northwest swell arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday.
West facing shores will see a small increase in surf from this long- period south swell and, to a lesser extent, the north-northwest swell. Light trade winds will keep small surf in the forecast along east facing shores through at least next Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov