Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 84 to 89. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69. North winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with showers likely. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with showers likely. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 75. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A showery pattern will linger over the eastern end of the state while drier conditions with moderate northeast trades continue elsewhere. Trades will diminish Thursday through the weekend as a front stalls north of the islands. This, combined with an area of moisture moving up the island chain from the southeast, will bring an increase of clouds and showers across most of the state this weekend with the potential for heavy rain during the afternoons.

Discussion

A front lingers over the eastern half of the state and is fueling scattered showers across windward areas of Maui County and windward slopes of the Big Island this morning. Elsewhere, isolated showers persist over windward areas. A ridge will remain just north of the state and drive moderate northeast trades through tonight. Moisture will linger over the eastern half of the state during this time, with drier conditions expected over the western half of the state. Windward Maui will see frequent showers with periods of localized heavy rainfall. The Big Island should see localized heavy rain each afternoon along the slopes with land breezes decreasing shower activity each night.
Models show a front will approach the state late Thursday, causing winds to weaken and veer toward the southeast over the eastern half of the state. Tropical moisture will move over the state Friday, then linger through the weekend. Winds will continue to weaken Friday and, by the weekend, a land and sea breeze pattern will dominate, with showers developing during late mornings and afternoons. With abundant moisture moving in from the southeast, heavy afternoon showers are possible primarily over leeward and interior areas.

Aviation

A wet pattern will linger over the eastern end of the state where a moisture axis associated with an old frontal boundary is located. Drier and more stable conditions with moderate northeast trades will continue over the western end where scattered showers will favor windward areas.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will remain possible through a good portion of the 24-hr period from Oahu to the Big Island (windward areas).

Marine

Remnant cloudiness and embedded showers from a recently dissipated front remain over and near the islands, especially Maui and the Big Island, this morning. And high pressure persists far northwest of the area. This configuration is resulting in light to moderate trade winds, which will continue through Thursday. Winds will likely become lighter Friday through Sunday as a weakening front approaches from the north.
The current short-period north swell will continue to lower through today, as will a small northwest swell. A larger and longer period north-northwest swell is expected to begin filling in Thursday night, peaking Friday, then lowering gradually through the weekend and into early next week. Surf heights may approach low-end advisory levels during the peak of this swell. Small, mainly background south swells are expected into Friday, with a slightly larger south swell possible over the weekend. Short-period choppy surf will remain rather small on east facing shores as trade winds over and upwind of the state remain on the lighter side. Most surf along east shores will be from north-swell wrap.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov