Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 66. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 61. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 82. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 64. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 83. East winds up to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 55 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 67. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Wind speeds will gradually ease today through Wednesday, giving way to a land and sea breeze weather pattern Thursday as a front approaches from the northwest. The front will bring a period of wet weather to portions of the state Thursday night into Saturday, likely followed by unsettled conditions early next week.

Discussion

Wind speeds will decrease beginning today as a high far north of the islands passes northeastward. Expect typical trade wind weather to focus clouds and showers across windward slopes, along with afternoon clouds and spotty showers across leeward and interior areas of the Big Island, today into early Wednesday. By late Wednesday, trades may weaken enough for afternoon sea breezes to develop across leeward areas. This could produce enhanced afternoon cloud cover and a few leeward showers.
Models show developing upper troughing near and north of Hawaii later in the week. Local winds will become light southwesterly on Thursday as a front approaches from the northwest and the ridge aloft steadily erodes. Afternoon sea breezes will produce spotty interior showers, some possible heavy, followed by an increase in moisture Thursday night ahead of the front. The front will likely move over the western end of the state sometime Friday and fall apart over the central or southern end of the island chain Saturday. A stronger front may affect the area early next week as a deep low sets up north of Hawaii. Breezy to windy southwest flow could develop as early as Sunday, and wet and unsettled weather is becoming increasing likely.

Aviation

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will begin to ease as the day progresses, but remain moderate to breezy in most areas. Winds will ease further tonight. Showers, and accompanying MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and visibilities, will mainly affect windward and mauka sections statewide.
An AIRMET for mountain obscuration is in effect for portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. And the AIRMET for low-level turbulence downwind of higher elevations remains posted across the island chain.

Marine

Surface high pressure centered approximately 1,550 miles north northeast of Oahu is pressing a tight enough pressure gradient down across the islands to maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds through this afternoon. As this high moves away to the northeast and a large storm low replaces it north of the area, the regional pressure gradient will become slack enough to weaken local winds to more moderate magnitudes through mid-week. A cold front will approach the offshore waters from the west Thursday and further weaken winds while veering them around the southern half of the dial. Late week winds are forecast to become light to gentle northerly breezes before strengthening ahead of a strong storm system moving in from the northwest early next week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all waters (except windward Kauai and windward Big Island zones) will be scaled back to only include the typical windy areas around Maui County and south of Big Island through tonight.
A series of small size, medium period northwest to north swells will result in small rises to the surf along north and west-facing shores through Wednesday. A large northwest swell arriving Friday has the potential to lift surf to near High Surf Warning levels along many north and west-facing shores. In the long term, model guidance has been consistently bringing in a large, medium period northwest swell from a relatively close, favorable island direction long gale fetch source early next week. If this swell does materialize, it has a high chance of producing solid warning level surf for most north and western island exposures. Strong trades will keep eastern shore surf slightly elevated through the day. Rough eastern nearshore water conditions will noticeably improve through mid-week in response to weakening winds. South- facing shore surf will remain small with only background south swell energy passing through the next several days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov