Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for January 05, 2023

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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 67. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 82. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 62. North winds up to 10 mph.

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Friday: Sunny. Highs around 83. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

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Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph.

East Maui

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Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 63. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 65. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The remnant moisture associated with an old front will keep some some showers rolling into windward portions of the central islands this morning, with drier conditions prevailing elsewhere. Shower coverage will diminish considerably this afternoon, although lingering moisture will keep a slight chance for showers along windward sections of the eastern islands through Friday morning. Very dry and stable weather will overspread the entire state Friday afternoon and hold in place through Tuesday, with very little if any rain expected. A front could bring an increase in showers to Kauai and Oahu next Wednesday. Light to moderate trade winds will generally prevail through much of the forecast period.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure is positioned around 200 miles north of Honolulu, while the front that was over the central islands has dissipated. Light to moderate trade winds continue to prevail across the state early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state, with cloud coverage highest in windward areas from Oahu eastward. Radar imagery shows scattered showers affecting windward sections of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island, with rain free conditions over Kauai and Lanai. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances.
The remnant moisture associated with the old front will gradually disperse today as mid and upper level ridging builds in from the west. Scattered showers will continue early this morning over windward sections of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island, with perhaps a shower or two reaching leeward communities, with dry conditions prevailing elsewhere. We should see a marked decrease in shower coverage statewide this afternoon, as inversion heights drop below 5,000 feet statewide. Some lingering moisture will likely keep a few showers showers rolling into windward sections of the eastern islands tonight and Friday morning, with very little shower activity then expected statewide by Friday afternoon as precipitable water values drop into the 0.75 to 1.0 inch range.
Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected Friday night through Wednesday, with precipitable water values holding below an inch and inversion heights remaining below 5,000 feet. As a result, very little if any rainfall is expected during this time. A weakening front could potentially bring an increase in showers to Kauai and Oahu around the middle of next week.
Light to moderate trade winds will generally prevail through Monday, with only minor variations in strength from day to day. Light and variable winds appear possible on Tuesday in advance of a weakening front, with perhaps a return of light to moderate trade winds for Wednesday.

Aviation

The areal coverage of showers has diminished this morning, with the most persistent showers focused across windward areas of the central smaller islands and Big Island. Drier and more stable conditions pushing over Kauai this morning, will spread eastward into the state this afternoon which will further limit showers across the islands. Widespread MVFR conditions seen earlier, have also decreased. However some MVFR conditions, in heavier showers, will continue the potential need of AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration across some windward locations this morning.
Otherwise, light to moderate northeasterly trade winds continue across the islands today. This relatively light wind pattern will promote diurnal land sea breeze circulations across some leeward areas during the TAF period.

Marine

Gentle to moderate northeast trades will hold today before veering easterly and strengthening to moderate to fresh Friday through the weekend as surface high pressure reestablishes just north of the island chain. A front will approach the state early next week, prompting winds to weaken and veer out of the south before more northerly winds fill in behind the front. A high will build north of the state behind the front and track east, allowing moderate to fresh trades to return by mid week next week.
Surf along north and west facing shores will steadily ease through Friday as overlapping short- period northwest (330 degrees) and north (350 degrees) swells moves through. The north swell will transition to more north- northeast (20-30 degrees) today into the weekend. Surf along north and west facing shores will steadily increase as early as late Friday into early next week as consecutive northwest (320-330 degrees) swells move through the island chain, each a little bigger than the previous. These swells could bring above average surf to north and west facing shores late in the weekend into early next week before slowly trending down.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small, except for shores exposed to the north and northeast swell mentioned above. East shores may see an additional slight bump as trades strengthen slightly Friday into the weekend. The small surf along south facing shores will see another little bump over the next day or two keeping surf slightly elevated into the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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